Democrats’ Victory in Both Houses of Congress Puts Trump’s Iran Policy Under New Scrutiny
Key Facts
Democrats won control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives in Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections, a result that puts President Donald Trump’s Iran policy under tougher congressional scrutiny, Reuters reported. The result comes as European gas markets track the fallout from the war with Iran and disrupted supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters attributed voters’ shift toward Democrats to “deep dissatisfaction with the unpopular war with Iran and concern about rising living costs.” Available information did not include a reliable figure for the gas price or its percentage change in Wednesday’s session, so the story’s focus remains the shift in Washington’s balance of power and its relationship to the course of the war. The newly elected Congress will not take its seats immediately; that begins in January.
Exit polls showed that 70% of voters want Congress to impose more checks and balances on the president, according to Reuters. The result reflects an electoral mandate for greater oversight of the executive branch, at a time when the war with Iran is one of the drivers of political discontent. Democrats also won all 20 contested House races decided by Wednesday morning, the agency reported. This early tally shows the breadth of gains in races that have been decided, while available information did not provide a detailed final count of seats. These developments put the war among the political challenges the White House will face as the new Congress begins work.
Gas markets’ focus on the course of the war is also tied to disruption to shipping routes in the Gulf. A later MarketScreener update said disruption to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz had limited exports from Qatar and the UAE, and that the strait carried about 20% of global liquefied natural gas. The International Energy Agency provides a specific estimate of the share of Qatari and Emirati shipments passing through the strait: 19% of global LNG trade, according to 2025 data. The agency said shipments from Qatar and the UAE fell by more than 60 billion cubic meters year on year between March and October. These losses make the market more sensitive to any further disruption in the region, as Europe and Asia compete for available cargoes ahead of winter.
Prices had tested the €100 level in the October 28 session, when the Dutch front-month TTF contract briefly touched that mark, up about 4% from the previous session, according to Reuters data published via MarketScreener. At that date, European gas storage was about 75% full, compared with about 60% in Germany as the heating season began, according to the same source. An analyst at Rystad Energy also said Europe’s LNG imports in the week ended October 9 were 30% below their year-earlier level. In a broader comparison, the European Central Bank said European one-year and two-year contracts rose 12% and 2% during the Iran war, compared with 38% and 74% during the Ukraine crisis. TTF prices ranged from €28 to €40 per megawatt-hour in early 2026, compared with a range of €80 to €90 before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, according to the ECB.
On the diplomatic front, Qatari mediators held two rounds of talks with Iranian officials in the week before an Associated Press report dated November 2, seeking a framework linking an end to Iranian attacks on the Strait of Hormuz with the United States lifting its blockade of Iranian ports. Further rounds were planned during the week, according to regional officials cited by the agency. In contrast, the agency quoted a regional official as saying Benjamin Netanyahu had pressed Trump to launch a swift, broad air campaign, but said the president had not decided on military action. The talks and military developments remain parallel tracks to watch for their effects on energy flows and market expectations. Markets are also watching planned Russian-Ukrainian peace talks in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11, according to a later MarketScreener update.
Democrats are expected to use their power to investigate the Trump administration, his family and allies, and seek concessions on major legislation after taking their seats in January, Reuters reported. A Democratic Senate can block Trump’s nominees, including Supreme Court nominees if a seat becomes vacant, according to the agency. This gives the election result an institutional impact beyond its immediate political message, adding potential constraints on the administration’s future choices. The effect of the new oversight on war decisions or supplies will not be clear from the election result alone. Markets will continue to monitor developments in the Strait of Hormuz and diplomatic talks alongside the start of the new Congress’s term in January.