Brent’s 7.6% Drop Lifts Airline Stocks Despite Nasdaq’s 1.1% Decline

Key Facts

Brent crude fell 7.6% to $104.77 a barrel in the November 2 session, helping shares of companies with large fuel bills, including airlines, according to an Associated Press report. United Airlines shares rose 4.8%, while Southwest Airlines gained 3.6% in the same session. The two stocks moved against the Nasdaq, which fell 1.1%, while the S&P 500 lost about 0.5% after erasing morning gains of 1.1%. The Dow Jones rose 0.4%, in a session marked by diverging moves among indexes and stocks. The agency’s report attributed support for companies with large fuel bills to lower oil prices, easing the direct pressure of fuel costs on airlines. Brent, the report said, had traded in a range of about $70 to $120 a barrel since before the war.

The decline in oil coincided with diplomatic moves involving Iran. A Reuters report cited signs of action by Washington and regional mediators, as well as Qatari-Iranian talks for a third consecutive day. The talks aimed to establish a framework to halt hostilities and restore trade through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the report. This came amid earlier concerns about supply disruptions, after Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures each rose about 15% in October. The report linked that increase to repeated strikes on tankers in the Gulf, damage to refining infrastructure and fears that the conflict could widen. On October 30, oil prices jumped more than 2% and settled at their highest since the end of April, as traders watched for the possibility of renewed escalation around Iran. The November 2 session thus followed a month of oil gains and came just after a further rise at the end of October.

But a one-session decline in oil did not erase airlines’ estimates of elevated fuel costs in the fourth quarter. United Airlines assumed an average jet-fuel price of about $4.80 a gallon for that quarter, based on the Gulf Coast jet-fuel futures curve as of October 16. The company had said its jet-fuel expense rose $1.8 billion, or 61.6%, in the third quarter from the same period a year earlier, attributing the increase mainly to a higher average price per gallon. These figures show the scale of fuel’s impact on the carrier’s expenses, even as its shares rose in a session when oil fell. The gap between daily market moves and quarterly estimates also reflects how companies’ fuel-price assumptions rely on futures curves and specific reference dates. The stock’s gain on the day of the decline therefore came alongside fuel forecasts well above levels before the increase recorded in October.

JetBlue faces a similar assumption in its fuel estimates. Its average fuel price was $3.91 a gallon in the third quarter of 2026, up 57% from the same period a year earlier. The company forecast a price of $4.64 a gallon in the fourth quarter, based on the Brent futures curve and the jet-fuel price differential as of October 16. JetBlue said it expected its operating margin to widen in the fourth quarter, even though forecast fuel prices were 85% higher than in the same period a year earlier. The company set a goal of achieving sustainable operating profitability in 2027, followed by earnings per share of at least $1 and positive free cash flow in 2028. These targets place the November 2 oil decline in a broader picture in which the company’s fuel estimates remain elevated and its financial plans continue to depend on those estimates.

For the oil market, an Investing.com report citing Reuters gave a snapshot during the November 2 session showing Brent futures down 3.9% at $109.01 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate futures down 4.2% at $99.74. This snapshot differs from the Brent price of $104.77 cited in the Associated Press report, and the timing and prices of snapshots in market reports also vary. In EL7 daily data, Brent closed at $104.98 on November 2, compared with $113.43 on October 30. These figures show continued pressure on oil compared with the end-of-October close, while the future fuel costs assumed by United and JetBlue remained above prices cited in some snapshots. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly report, covering data through November 6, is scheduled for release on Thursday, November 12, because of the Veterans Day holiday. Traders are therefore waiting for the weekly inventory data on that date, not November 4 as stated in the first draft.