Competition Bureau expects higher prices on 8 routes as United and Air Canada seek to expand pact

Key Facts

Canada’s Competition Bureau said the proposed expansion of the joint business agreement between Air Canada and United Airlines could materially raise prices on 8 of 10 routes excluded from full coordination, costing consumers millions of dollars a year. The airlines are seeking to add routes between Canada and the United States to an arrangement in place since July 2022. The proposed expansion would allow them to coordinate pricing, schedules, marketing and capacity, and share revenue on those routes. The bureau said the agreement, if implemented, would cause "substantial competitive harm" and anti-competitive effects, including higher prices. Final approval remains subject to Canada’s public interest review, while the U.S. Federal Trade Commission is pursuing a separate process to gather information on personalized pricing.

The existing arrangement already includes revenue sharing on routes between major hubs, joint pricing and revenue management, as well as coordination of route and schedule planning, according to the Competition Bureau. The airlines are seeking to extend that cooperation to routes currently excluded from the agreement. They submitted an application to Transport Canada for approval of the amended and restated agreement, which is subject to the necessary regulatory approvals. The bureau concluded that extending coordination to the additional routes would weaken competition if it took effect. It estimates that prices would rise materially on 8 of the 10 routes covered by its analysis, causing consumers millions of dollars in annual harm. The assessment does not specify the increase on each route or a precise total dollar value for the harm.

In a separate regulatory process, the Federal Trade Commission issued orders to 9 companies, including United, seeking information on how prices and compensation vary among individuals. The targeted companies include airlines, ride-sharing and food-delivery firms, among them Delta, JetBlue, Uber and Walmart. The commission requested data to help assess whether a ticket or service price changes from one person to another based on loyalty-program participation or analysis of personal data using highly intelligent algorithms. FTC Chairman Andrew Ferguson said: "We intend to scrutinize the opaque methodology that some companies in these sectors may use." The commission said its Section 6(b) orders allow it to conduct broad studies that are not aimed at a specific law-enforcement purpose. The request therefore concerns information gathering and study; the commission did not announce a finding about United’s practices in its statement.

The study is part of the commission’s broader interest in personalized pricing; in August, it invited comment on a draft enforcement policy addressing the practice. Ferguson said failing to tell consumers how their data is used to set prices could violate the commission’s law. The commission gave the companies receiving the orders 45 days from the date they received them to respond. In Canada, public consultation on the public interest assessment of the proposed agreement ends on November 15, 2026. Canada’s transport minister will ultimately determine whether the agreement serves the public interest and should be authorized, taking competition considerations and other relevant factors into account. United shares closed at $104.24 on October 30, 2026, according to EL7 data.

United also faces an operating backdrop of higher fuel costs. Its third-quarter 2026 results showed operating revenue of $17.9 billion, up 17.4% from the same quarter in 2025, according to the company’s report. Fuel expenses rose by $1.8 billion compared with the same period a year earlier. EL7 reported on October 20 that the company cut its 2026 earnings forecast because of higher fuel costs. The Canadian agreement review adds a regulatory issue concerning competition and prices on specific routes, while the U.S. commission’s study examines pricing methods based on individual data. The two processes remain separate, as the Canadian consultation approaches its November 15 close and responses to the commission’s orders are due within 45 days of receipt.