Turkey’s Annual Inflation at 29.77% in October, Exceeding Market Expectations
Key Facts
Turkish Statistical Institute said on November 3 that consumer prices rose 2.58% month on month in October and 29.77% year on year. The annual reading was above market consensus of 29.56%, while the monthly reading exceeded the forecast of 2.4%, according to the Trading Economics calendar. This points to a return to faster monthly price growth after the September reading, while annual inflation remained close to its previous level. The institute published October data at 10:00 on November 3. The figures put the price trajectory under close scrutiny as costs continued to rise across several major categories.
Monthly growth accelerated from 1.84% in September to 2.58% in October, while the annual inflation rate edged up from 29.73% to 29.77%. The comparison shows that the clearer shift was in the pace of month-to-month change, rather than the annual rate, which increased slightly. From the start of the year, prices rose 27.52% through October compared with December 2025. The average change over 12 months was 31.23%, a measure distinct from October’s annual reading. These differing measures highlight continued price pressures, although each covers a different period.
Major categories recorded varying annual increases in October, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 27.73%, while transport prices increased 36.39%. The largest increase among the categories cited was in housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, at 40.24%. These levels mean price pressures were unevenly distributed across spending items, with housing, energy and transport costs remaining above the food rate. These differences provide context for the headline inflation reading alongside the trend in core indicators.
Among core indicators, index B rose 28.46% year on year in October, while index C increased 28.28%. Index C rose 2.07% month on month, below the headline index’s monthly increase of 2.58%. The comparison shows that the headline index rose faster than core index C during the month, while the annual readings for both core indices remained below the overall rate. In producer data, domestic prices rose 1.65% month on month and 27.41% year on year in October, according to the Trading Economics calendar. These readings add to the picture of price developments at different levels of the economy, without changing the fact that headline inflation exceeded market expectations.
The market participants survey published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye in October kept its end-2026 inflation forecast at 29.6%, while raising its end-2027 forecast by 0.6 percentage points to 23.3%. The central bank governor had raised his end-2026 forecast to 28% in August and projected inflation to fall to 15% at the end of 2027. In its meeting summary, the bank said, "Recent inflation figures and leading indicators confirm a slowdown in the underlying inflation trend, despite monthly volatility." October’s annual reading is above participants’ end-2026 forecast, with the reference periods differing between a single month’s annual reading and a year-end forecast. The next Monetary Policy Committee meeting is scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The Turkish Statistical Institute set December 3, 2026, as the date for publishing its next consumer price index bulletin. The next reading will update the inflation trajectory after October’s data showed faster monthly growth than in September and exceeded market expectations on both a monthly and annual basis. Until its release, October’s figures remain the latest official consumer price index reading among the available evidence.