U.S. Strikes Target Qeshm Island as Brent Rises 1.7% Ahead of Election Results

Key Facts

U.S. strikes targeted Qeshm Island on Monday, November 2, on the eve of the U.S. midterm elections, in the latest publicly disclosed military action in operations Washington said were defensive. The Washington Post reported, citing officials, that U.S. forces carried out airstrikes that were not announced in recent weeks, while the latest strikes focused on the island. Officials said the operation targeted Iranian missile launch platforms as part of efforts to protect U.S. forces and limit Tehran’s ability to threaten shipping. The Associated Press reported that a U.S. official said the strikes hit Iranians using surface-to-air missiles against U.S. assets in the Strait of Hormuz. The action came before Tuesday’s vote, while President Donald Trump had previously pledged that the United States would not attack Iran before the election.

The Washington Post noted that U.S. Central Command last announced airstrikes in September, following U.S. attacks on five Iranian oil tankers. The latest strikes therefore came after weeks of operations Washington had not publicly disclosed, according to officials who spoke to the newspaper. This sequence puts Trump’s earlier pledge to avoid an attack before the election against the continuation of military operations, although the report distinguishes between unannounced strikes and their official announcement. At the same time, the White House had not settled on a decision about a broader air campaign, according to an official cited by the Associated Press. The official said the president “does not appear to have made a decision.”

The renewed strikes were reflected in oil markets, with Brent crude rising 1.7% to $106.58 a barrel on Tuesday and U.S. benchmark crude gaining 1.5% to $97.88, according to the Associated Press. Brent had closed Monday’s session at $104.77 a barrel, down $8.66, or 7.63%, before resuming its rise. In early trading, Brent stood at $105.25, up 0.5%, while West Texas Intermediate was at $96.93, up 0.5%, by 0104 GMT, according to Reuters. Brent ended October at a six-month high, as markets worried that the conflict could escalate after Tuesday’s election. The Associated Press said global stocks and U.S. futures fell on Tuesday as investors awaited election results, while oil prices rose after the strikes.

The location of the strikes heightens the energy market’s sensitivity to security risks, as about one-fifth of global oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz in peacetime, according to the Associated Press. October saw the highest number of attacks on commercial vessels in the strait since March, the agency reported. Other U.S. allies in the Middle East warned that expanding the strikes could destabilize the region and prompt Iran-aligned Houthis to step up attacks on Saudi Arabia and Red Sea vessels. The picture, however, was not limited to escalation: before the strikes were confirmed, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said the administration felt positive about the prospects for a negotiated settlement. The Associated Press quoted Trump as saying the conflict had cost U.S. taxpayers at least $47 billion as of November 2, while playing down the description of the fighting as a war.

Diplomatic moves point to continued contacts alongside the confrontation. The Associated Press said Qatari mediators held two rounds of talks with Iranian officials in the previous week, and officials expected further rounds during the week of November 2. According to regional officials cited by the agency, the mediators are discussing a framework under which Iran would halt attacks in the strait in exchange for the United States lifting its blockade, with more talks planned during the week. Iran also said it had a two-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks if Washington responded to its demands. Iranian state television quoted Iranian security chief Reza Rezaei as saying the U.S. tone had “changed completely,” calling that “a very good sign,” while the agency reported that he had not responded to Vance’s message.