Saudi Oil Revenue Falls 23% to 116.495 Billion Riyals in Third Quarter
Key Facts
Saudi oil revenue fell 23% year over year to 116.495 billion riyals in the third quarter of 2026, according to the Finance Ministry’s budget performance report. That was down from 150.816 billion riyals in the same period a year earlier. By contrast, non-oil revenue rose 20% to 142.616 billion riyals from 119.059 billion riyals. The increase was not enough to prevent total budget revenue from falling 4% to 259.111 billion riyals, compared with 269.874 billion riyals a year earlier. The data thus showed a decline in quarterly oil revenue despite an increase in Aramco’s average selling price for oil during the period.
The budget recorded a deficit of 84.305 billion riyals in the third quarter, with spending reaching 343.415 billion riyals and revenue 259.111 billion riyals, according to the report. The deficit highlights the widening gap between spending and revenue during the quarter, alongside the year-over-year decline in total revenue. In the first nine months of 2026, total revenue rose 3% to 858.867 billion riyals from 835.085 billion riyals in the comparable period. Non-oil revenue increased 8% to 412.524 billion riyals over those nine months. Oil revenue fell 1% to 446.342 billion riyals, making the nine-month total different from the sharp decline recorded in the third quarter alone.
Economic activity data show a divergence between the year-over-year comparison and quarterly momentum. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, gross domestic product rose 1.3% from the second quarter. Seasonally adjusted oil activity grew 5.7%, compared with 0.6% for non-oil activity, while government activity fell 1.2%. The two comparisons reflect different trajectories: an annual contraction in GDP and oil activity, versus quarterly growth in GDP and oil activity after seasonal adjustment.
In a separate annual estimate, the Finance Ministry said real GDP was expected to contract 3.6% in 2026, with oil activity forecast to fall 21.8% amid geopolitical developments in the region. The ministry estimated the full-year budget deficit at 245 billion riyals, compared with an estimate of 165 billion riyals in the budget published the previous year. These are full-year estimates, not third-quarter results; the quarterly deficit recorded in the report was 84.305 billion riyals. Saudi Arabia expects real GDP to grow 12.8% in 2027, according to Reuters via Zawya.
On the market side, Aramco’s average oil selling price was $95.20 a barrel in the third quarter, up from $70.10 in the corresponding quarter of 2025, according to the Associated Press. The agency linked the higher prices to supply disruptions and uncertainty following the outbreak of war in Iran. It also reported that the East-West pipeline to the port of Yanbu enabled Aramco to continue exporting a large share of its oil despite disruption to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The pipeline came under attack on September 10 and then resumed flows, the agency said. The company’s selling prices and export context remain separate indicators from the oil revenue recorded in the government budget.