EL7.AI
StocksMedium•2 November 2026•
3 min read

Russian Manufacturing Nears Stabilization as PMI Rises to 49.9 in October

Key Facts

1Russia’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 49.9 in October, compared with 49.8 in September, below the 50 threshold separating growth from contraction.
2Manufacturing output and new orders fell for a third consecutive month in October.
3New export orders contracted for a 12th consecutive month, with the steepest decline since May 2022.
4Brent crude fell 7.6% to $104.77 a barrel on November 2.

Russia’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 49.9 in October from 49.8 in September, according to data reported by Reuters from S&P Global. The index remained below the 50-point level that separates growth from contraction. The reading indicates that manufacturing activity came close to stabilizing compared with the previous month, while remaining in contraction territory. In energy markets, Brent crude fell 7.6% to $104.77 a barrel on the same day, according to the Associated Press.

Weakness in the sector was not limited to the headline index reading; output fell for a third consecutive month in October, though the decline was slight, Reuters reported. New orders also fell for a third straight month. The drop in new orders was the slowest in that series, consistent with the improvement in the overall index compared with September. But the continued declines in output and orders kept October’s reading below the expansion threshold. Reuters’ report said output fell “for the third consecutive month, but only slightly,” and that new orders also declined for a third month.

External demand remained a more acute source of pressure, as new export orders contracted for a 12th consecutive month in October. The decline was the steepest since May 2022, according to the Reuters report. Companies participating in the survey linked the drop to lower orders from Commonwealth of Independent States countries, particularly Kazakhstan. This extended streak provides a weaker backdrop than the limited improvement in the overall index reading. The report said export orders “contracted for the 12th consecutive month,” with the steepest decline since May 2022.

Manufacturing employment fell again in October, with companies citing layoffs and voluntary resignations. But the pace of decline was the slowest since the start of the year, Reuters reported. This leaves the industrial labor market with a mixed picture: jobs continued to be cut, while the pace of decline slowed. Manufacturers’ confidence improved to its highest level since June, according to the same report. Even so, overall sentiment remained historically weak, limiting the significance of the improvement in confidence on its own.

The manufacturing activity reading comes amid pressure on Russia’s energy sector, of which oil and gas are an important part. EL7.AI reported on October 27 that Russian oil and gas revenues fell 17.2% to 5.471 trillion rubles during the period covered by its report. On November 2, Brent fell amid volatility linked to uncertainty over the global oil sector’s return to normal amid the war in Iran, according to the Associated Press. This does not establish the effect of crude’s move on the RTS in that day’s session, but places the oil decline within a broader picture of the energy sector. The available data do not establish a specific percentage drop in the index or particular drivers of its move in that session.