US Confirms Defensive Strikes in Hormuz as Brent Falls 7.63%
Key Facts
A US official confirmed that the United States carried out defensive strikes on Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian television reported hearing explosions on Qeshm Island. The official did not identify the island as a target, so Washington’s confirmation does not establish a direct link between the explosions and the military operations. The developments came on November 2, as Washington and Tehran continued contacts aimed at ending the war, according to the Associated Press. In energy markets, Brent settled at $104.77 a barrel in the same session, after falling $8.66, or 7.63%. Reuters linked the decline to hopes that Iranian-Qatari talks could end the war and stabilize crude supplies from the Middle East.
West Texas Intermediate settled at $96.46 a barrel, down $7.66, or 7.36%, on November 2, according to Reuters. The decline followed Brent’s close at a six-month high in October, amid concerns that the conflict could escalate after the US midterm elections scheduled for Tuesday. The session’s move reflected a retreat in the risk premium tied to supply concerns, as talks strengthened expectations of stable crude flows from the Middle East, Reuters said. The agency did not attribute the price drop to the explosions reported by Iranian television on Qeshm. The confirmed US strikes in the strait came as the safety of shipping and the fate of the naval blockade remained under discussion among the parties and mediators.
US Vice President J.D. Vance said Washington and Tehran had held “a number of good conversations,” and that the administration saw opportunities for a negotiated settlement, according to the Associated Press. Qatari mediators had held two rounds of talks with Iranian officials during the week before the agency’s report, seeking a framework under which Iran would halt its attacks in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the United States lifting its blockade of Iranian ports. Regional sources told the agency that further rounds were scheduled during the week of November 2. In turn, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said consultations through mediators were “intensive” and that Tehran had presented its conditions and proposals, adding that progress depended on “political rationality in Washington.” Reuters reported that Tehran’s talks with Qatari mediators ended without a breakthrough, while contacts between Iran and the United States continued and a draft proposal was being circulated.
US President Donald Trump told Axios that he was “in no hurry” to decide whether to resume fighting, and that he was allowing negotiations to continue while preparing for the possibility of returning to war if he concluded that an agreement was unattainable. Axios reported that Qatari mediators had prepared a draft agreement setting out a sequence of confidence-building measures over three days, aimed at restarting direct negotiations between the United States and Iran. This diplomatic track leaves the decision on resuming operations in Trump’s hands, while the strikes Washington confirmed in the strait continue. US allies in the Middle East warned that further strikes could destabilize the region. The Associated Press said the warnings included the possibility that strikes could prompt the Houthis to intensify attacks on Saudi Arabia and Red Sea vessels.
Maritime attacks are heightening the sensitivity of negotiations over the strait, with October seeing the highest number of attacks on commercial ships in Hormuz since March, according to the Associated Press. The agency said Iran was seeking to increase economic pressure to push the United States to lift its blockade of Iranian ports. This puts shipping and crude supplies among the issues where military operations and Qatari mediation intersect, as markets watch for the possibility of stable flows from the region. On a parallel diplomatic track, China plans to send a special envoy to Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia in early to mid-November, according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson quoted by the Associated Press. The Chinese mission comes as contacts continue over ending the war and containing tensions in the strait.