Brent Falls 7.63% to $104.77 as Hopes for Washington-Tehran Talks Revive
Key Facts
Brent crude settled 7.63% lower at $104.77 a barrel on Monday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 7.36% to $96.46, according to Reuters data. The decline came as hopes grew for an end to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and stable crude supplies from the Middle East, following talks between Iranian and Qatari officials. U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran wanted a deal to end the war and that it "could happen." But the comments do not mean a deal has been reached or that fighting will stop. Both benchmarks remained under pressure from diplomatic developments in a region whose supplies are central to market concerns.
Brent touched a session low of $103.28 a barrel, while WTI fell to a low of $95.15. The close at $104.77 highlights Brent’s decline from $113.43 on October 30, according to EL7 data, after it ended last month at a six-month high, Reuters reported. That followed a rise in oil prices during the previous week as fears of escalation mounted. The market remains highly sensitive to news from the Middle East, said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS. Prices fell as U.S.-Iranian diplomatic talks continued, he added.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the supreme leader had given the government certain powers over peace talks and that Tehran would try to resolve the crisis through dialogue. In Washington, Trump said he was in no hurry to decide whether to resume fighting and would let negotiations proceed while preparing for the possibility of returning to war if no deal could be reached. The positions point to room for diplomacy, but leave the path to de-escalation dependent on the talks’ outcome. Regional sources said Qatari mediators had drafted a proposal setting out a sequence of confidence-building measures over three days to resume direct negotiations. The draft was not presented as a final agreement between the two sides.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi set a condition for returning to negotiations, saying their resumption depended on Washington accepting Tehran’s terms concerning the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar and Pakistan were playing active roles as mediators, he said, adding: "We have presented our terms and proposal." The position puts the strait at the heart of the diplomatic process, after the war disrupted shipping through it and raised concerns about oil flows from the region. The gap between calls for dialogue and the stated conditions shows that the prospect of negotiations has yet to guarantee supply stability. Mediation news and developments on the ground therefore continued to influence crude prices.
Sultan Al Jaber, chief executive of ADNOC, said the world had drawn down about 1 billion barrels of inventories since the war disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The drawdown underscores the market’s sensitivity to possible supply disruptions, even as prices fell on hopes for negotiations. Meanwhile, Saudi crude exports rose in October compared with September, according to two of three ship-tracking companies, Reuters reported, despite Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure. The movement offers an indication of changing actual flows alongside shipping concerns. Goldman Sachs also raised its oil price forecasts, saying Brent could reach $140 in 2027 if Gulf production remained 3.5 million barrels a day below the 2025 average.
On production, the seven OPEC+ producers decided to keep December required production levels unchanged from September 2026, according to the organization’s statement. OPEC said the seven countries would continue holding monthly meetings to review market conditions and set November 29, 2026, for their next meeting. In U.S. supply data, the Energy Information Administration moved publication of its weekly report for data through November 6 to November 12, 2026, at 12:00 p.m. Eastern time because of the Veterans Day holiday. The official schedule lists the release at its revised time and does not confirm the date of the American Petroleum Institute report mentioned in the initial draft. Producers’ decisions and the timing of inventory data remain among the next developments the market is watching alongside the mediation process.