MPLX Targets Mid-Single-Digit Adjusted Earnings Growth, Allocates $2.9 Billion for 2026
Key Facts
MPLX said on November 3 that it is targeting mid-single-digit growth in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, as utilization of its assets rises and growth projects enter service. The company's chief executive said MPLX is positioned "to deliver mid-single-digit adjusted earnings growth as utilization across our system increases and key growth projects come online." The outlook accompanied the company's third-quarter results and 2026 capital program announcement. MPLX plans to invest $2.9 billion in organic growth capital during the year. More than 90% of that amount is earmarked for natural gas and natural gas liquids infrastructure, betting on increased activity across those assets.
Adjusted earnings attributable to MPLX were about $1.859 billion in the third quarter, compared with $1.766 billion in the same period of 2025, an increase of $93 million, or 5.3%. This shows growth in the company's core earnings measure, but came alongside a decline in net income attributable to it to $1.164 billion from $1.545 billion a year earlier. Incentive program expenses also rose to $77 million, from $40 million in the year-earlier quarter. The company said those expenses reduced adjusted earnings growth by 2 percentage points. The figures highlight a divergence between adjusted earnings growth and the year-on-year decline in net income during the period.
Operating volumes supported the picture of operational growth, with throughput at MPLX's terminals rising 6% year on year to 3.375 million barrels per day in the third quarter. Pipeline throughput, by contrast, was nearly steady at 5.951 million barrels per day. In Utica gas processing, utilization rose from 73% in the second quarter to 89% in the third. Harmon Creek III, a gas processing plant in the Marcellus Basin, began operating in August, with processing capacity of 300 million cubic feet per day, alongside a de-ethanizer unit with capacity of 40,000 barrels per day. The chief executive said higher utilization and key projects entering service support the earnings growth target. The company's projects are concentrated in the Permian and Marcellus basins, and MPLX expects the investments to generate mid-teens returns.
MPLX allocated its $2.9 billion capital program to infrastructure tied to natural gas and natural gas liquids. Its project list includes the Bay Runner and Bay Runner Twin pipelines, with transport capacity of up to 5.3 billion cubic feet per day. Bay Runner was scheduled to enter service in the fourth quarter of 2026, while the twin line is targeted for 2029. In a capital recycling move, the company announced the sale of logistics assets associated with the St. Paul Park and Mandan refineries for $750 million. The deal represents a multiple of 9 times forecast 2027 adjusted earnings, and MPLX said it would redeploy the proceeds after the sale closes. The deal is expected to close by the end of 2026, so the proceeds had not been realized when it was announced.
Distributable cash flow totaled $1.537 billion in the third quarter, and distribution coverage was 1.3 times. MPLX raised its quarterly distribution by 12.5% for the third consecutive year, to an annualized rate of $4.84 per unit. As of September 30, leverage was 3.8 times, with $1.3 billion in cash and $2.5 billion available under its revolving bank credit facility. These figures show available cash and distribution commitments alongside spending and growth plans. The company's units closed at $58.94 on November 2, then rose 0.68% in after-hours trading following the results announcement on November 3.
MPLX management expects adjusted earnings growth to be weighted toward the second half of 2026, with cash flow growth accelerating in 2027 as contributions from existing projects increase. The company said adjusted earnings growth in 2027 could exceed 2026 levels even after accounting for earnings lost from the assets sold. The outlook incorporates the effect of the sale into future growth projections, with the proceeds to be redeployed in expansion opportunities. Project start-up dates remain part of the growth path outlined by the company: Bay Runner is targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026, while Bay Runner Twin is targeted for 2029. Management tied its outlook to increased system utilization and natural gas and natural gas liquids projects entering service.