EL7.AI
StocksMedium•2 November 2026•
4 min read

34.9 Miles per Gallon in 2031 as Automakers Back Easing of U.S. Fuel Standards

Key Facts

1The Transportation Department expects average fleet fuel economy of 34.9 miles per gallon in model year 2031, versus 30.1 miles per gallon in 2024.
2Average fleet fuel economy is expected to reach 34.9 miles per gallon in 2031, compared with 50.4 miles per gallon under Biden administration rules.
3The Transportation Department estimates the rule will cut the average cost of a new car by 1,300 dollars and save 138 billion dollars over the next five years.
4The Transportation Department estimates gasoline consumption will rise by 4.6% through 2050 compared with Biden administration rules.
5The rule takes effect on November 30, 2026, and covers model years 2022 through 2031.

President Donald Trump’s administration announced less stringent final fuel economy standards on September 28, in a move aimed at making it easier to sell gasoline-powered vehicles and reversing the Biden administration’s push for more efficient vehicles. The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents companies including General Motors, Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai and Ford, welcomed what it called “the right decision to better align fuel economy standards with the law and current market conditions.” Ford, General Motors and Stellantis expressed support for the rule. But the companies’ announcement does not mean its financial impact has been settled; Ford said it is still assessing the full implications for its business. The new rule sets the fleet fuel economy path for model year 2031 at 34.9 miles per gallon, compared with a previous forecast of 50.4 miles per gallon under Biden administration rules.

The alliance said Biden administration rules “effectively mandated a transition to electric vehicles, in a way that did not align with market realities and customer demand.” The objection reflects automakers’ desire for more room to determine the mix of vehicles and powertrains they offer, as Stellantis put it, saying the standards allow customers to choose from a range of vehicles and powertrains suited to their needs. A General Motors spokesperson said the company supports the rule’s goals and its intent to align standards with market realities. Ford said it appreciates the administration’s efforts in this direction, while continuing to assess the rule’s full impact on its business. The industry’s position therefore combines support for the change with Ford’s reservations about estimating its company-specific effects.

The Transportation Department estimates that average fleet fuel economy will reach 34.9 miles per gallon in model year 2031, compared with 30.1 miles per gallon in model year 2024. Another comparison shows the scale of the change from the previous regulatory path: the 2031 average had been forecast at 50.4 miles per gallon under Biden administration rules. The department says the rule will reduce the average cost of a new car by 1,300 dollars and save Americans 138 billion dollars over the next five years. These are estimates issued by the department, not financial results already achieved by automakers or savings recorded by buyers. By contrast, the department estimates that U.S. gasoline consumption will rise by 4.6% through 2050 compared with Biden rules.

Oil consumption estimates offer another view of the rule’s long-term impact: the Transportation Department says projected annual consumption in 2050 will be about 1.3 billion barrels lower than annual consumption in 2024. On the industry side, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said earlier fuel economy rules for 2024 were expected to cost General Motors 31.7 billion dollars through 2031. In 2023, the agency had estimated that a proposal to raise fuel economy standards through 2032 would cost the industry 14 billion dollars. These estimates provide context for automakers’ support for easing requirements, but on their own they do not establish how much each company will save under the final rule. The agency also estimated, when the 2024 standards took effect, that they would prevent 14 billion gallons of gasoline from being burned by 2050.

The rule also changes how companies comply: they will not be able to create tradable credits starting with model year 2028. Credits generated through model year 2027 will remain tradable and usable for up to five years. The reclassification of vehicles into fleet categories will also begin in model year 2030, after the deadline was postponed in response to comments about the time the industry needs and regulatory certainty. In its report on the rule, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said it had concluded that the previous standards exceeded the level it considered technologically feasible, citing legal, economic and technical factors. The changes cover passenger cars and light trucks for model years 2022 through 2031.

The rule faces opposition from environmental groups: the Sierra Club said it would challenge it, warning that “less efficient cars mean burning more gasoline, spending more at the pump and having more polluted air in our communities.” That contrasts with the department’s estimate of savings on the cost of buying a new car, while its gasoline consumption estimate points to a higher fuel burden compared with Biden rules. The final rule takes effect on November 30, 2026, covering model years 2022 through 2031. The ban on creating tradable credits begins with model year 2028, while vehicle reclassification begins in 2030. Ford, according to its public position, remains in the process of assessing the changes’ full impact on its business.