Iraq’s Exports Exceed 3.4 Million Barrels per Day Through October 19 as Ceyhan Route Recovers
Key Facts
Iraq’s oil exports averaged more than 3.4 million barrels per day during the period through October, the oil minister said on October 19, signaling a recovery in supplies after tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted. The Iraqi News Agency reported, according to Reuters and Rudaw, that shipments moved through the Strait of Hormuz and Turkey’s Ceyhan port, as well as by trucks carrying oil through Syria. The reported figure is an estimate for the period through the date of the statement, not a final tally for the full month. The minister said the average was 3 million barrels per day in September before rising to more than 3.4 million in October through that point. The export recovery comes as the government seeks to restore the flow of oil revenues that fund state spending.
The recovery remained partial compared with supply levels before the conflict. Iraq exported about 3.7 million barrels per day before the war, while Reuters reported that Iraqi supplies to the global market stood at 3.4 million barrels per day before the U.S.-Iran conflict broke out on February 28. At the height of the disruption, total exports fell from more than 99 million barrels in February to 18.6 million in March, according to Rudaw. By late September, daily exports had recovered to about 3 million barrels, according to the head of parliament’s finance committee, as quoted by Rudaw. These levels show the size of the gap that began to narrow as shipments improved in October, without indicating that exports had returned to prewar levels.
The northern route through the Kurdistan Region to Turkey formed part of that recovery. The head of the KAR Group said on October 31 that pipeline flows to Turkey had risen from 250,000 to 500,000 barrels per day. Earlier in October, oil expert Ziad al-Hashimi estimated flows through the pipeline at between 200,000 and 230,000 barrels per day, according to +964. These are flow figures at specific points in time and do not represent the route’s average exports for the month. Ceyhan shipment data for the first nine months of the year also showed 50 million barrels of northern Iraqi crude passing through, averaging about 188,000 barrels per day, alongside 25.1 million barrels of Kurdistan Region oil, averaging about 93,000 per day, according to Reuters. The comparison reflects the increase in reported flows at the end of October relative to average shipments recorded in the earlier period.
The expansion of the northern route underscores the importance of diversifying export outlets in a country through which about 90% of oil exports passed via the Strait of Hormuz before shipping was disrupted, according to Reuters. The oil minister said Iraqi crude is exported to markets in Europe, Asia and the United States, making the smooth operation of different routes important to delivering supplies to buyers. The minister linked increased export capacity to the government’s ability to fulfill its responsibilities and provide the funds needed to cover state spending. Achieving that goal depends on continued shipments through existing outlets, as well as maintaining flows along the northern route. These statements do not include a final tally for October exports or confirmation of a final monthly average.
Iraq-Turkey agreements provide an additional framework for the development of Ceyhan exports. +964 reported that an agreement reached in August set a minimum of 750,000 barrels per day through the port for one year. The reported flow through the Kurdistan Region pipeline on October 31 was 500,000 barrels per day, a measure of the route cited by the KAR Group chief, not total shipments through Ceyhan under the agreement. In July, Iraq’s State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) said talks between Iraq and Turkey addressed mechanisms to ensure crude exports continue, and that both sides affirmed they would continue technical and legal consultations ahead of an executive protocol and a new bilateral agreement. Regular exports through Ceyhan remain tied to the continuation of these technical and legal arrangements and to actual flows through the pipeline. Available data indicate that the Ceyhan route expanded at the end of October, while the full-month average for exports remained unconfirmed in the information published here.