Intesa Sanpaolo Raises 2026 Profit Forecast to Well Above €10 Billion
Key Facts
Intesa Sanpaolo raised its 2026 net income forecast to well above €10 billion after announcing on November 3 that net profit reached €8.199 billion in the first nine months of the year. The result was up 8.1% from €7.588 billion in the same period of 2025, according to the bank’s statement. Reuters said the previous forecast was for net income of more than €10 billion, without describing it as “well above.” The upgraded forecast reflects performance over the first nine months, while the bank pointed to an impact of €0.9 billion on its profit from Italy’s 2026 budget law. The bank reported net income of €2.645 billion in the third quarter, compared with €2.793 billion in the second quarter and €2.372 billion in the third quarter of 2025.
Operating income rose 5% in the first nine months to €21.457 billion from €20.441 billion a year earlier, according to Intesa data. In the third quarter, net interest income was €3.89 billion, up 1.1% from the second quarter and 5.6% from the same period of 2025. For quarterly operating income, Reuters reported €6.92 billion, below analysts’ expectations of €7 billion. Reuters said in another report that quarterly revenue of €7 billion matched analysts’ expectations. Operating costs fell 1.3% in the first nine months to €7.876 billion from €7.983 billion, and the cost-to-income ratio declined to 36.7% from 39.1%.
Chief Executive Carlo Messina said the bank recorded its highest-ever revenue for a nine-month period and its best quarterly net income in its history in the third quarter. The annualized return on equity was 21%, while the annualized return on tangible equity reached 26%. Earnings per share also rose 10% compared with the first nine months of 2025, according to Messina’s statement. These indicators, along with higher operating income and lower expenses, provide the backdrop to the bank’s upgraded annual forecast. The bank said its Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio was 13.1% on September 30 after deducting amounts due for distribution to shareholders. The ratio rises to 13.8% when an estimated benefit of around 70 basis points from the absorption of deferred tax assets is included.
The bank earmarked €7.8 billion for distribution to shareholders during the first nine months, including €6.1 billion in cash dividends, according to its results statement. This includes an interim dividend of €3.8 billion that the bank said it would pay during November. Intesa also completed a €2.3 billion share buyback in October. These amounts are part of the shareholder returns plan the company outlined alongside its financial results. More broadly, Messina said the expected combined group would post net income of more than €16 billion in 2029. He estimated total shareholder distributions at around €61 billion over the 2025 to 2029 period, €11 billion more than included in the business plan announced in February.
The results coincided with the bank’s bid to acquire Monte dei Paschi. Reuters reported that Intesa raised the proposed share-exchange ratio to 1.664 new Intesa shares for each Monte dei Paschi share, compared with 1.6 previously. The offer includes €1.25 in cash for each share tendered and is valued at €34 billion in total. Reuters said the bank expected a “significant” increase in income from the spread between lending and deposit rates in 2027. In Milan trading on November 3, Intesa shares fell by about 1% after the results announcement, according to a Reuters report that said quarterly operating income came in below analysts’ estimates.