European Gas Storage 75% Full at End of October Amid Declining Global Supply
Key Facts
European gas storage was 75% full at the end of October 2026, as the region entered the heating season against a backdrop of tight global supply. Hürriyet reported that European gas storage facilities recorded this level at the end of the month. This coincided with an effective halt in liquefied natural gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the International Energy Agency. The agency said the disruption cut loadings from Qatar and the UAE by more than 60 billion cubic metres between March and October 2026. The decline in available cargoes leaves Europe in a market where importing regions are competing for flexible supply, while storage levels remain a key focus as winter begins.
The International Energy Agency expects global liquefied natural gas supply to fall by 3% in 2026, equivalent to around 20 billion cubic metres. The agency said this would be the largest annual decline in supply on record. The expected drop comes in a year marked by disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz, after the halt cut loadings from Qatar and the UAE by more than 60 billion cubic metres between March and October. These lost volumes limit the amount of gas available for international trade over the same period. The decline in supply forms the immediate backdrop to the agency's assessment that competition for flexible cargoes may intensify in the coming months.
By contrast, the agency expects global gas demand to fall by about 1.5% in 2026, or around 65 billion cubic metres, with European demand declining 3% over the year. This expected decline in consumption does not remove the effect of supply constraints on the spot market, amid the agency's warning that gas importers are competing for available cargoes. The agency says lower European storage levels, together with limited storage options for some LNG importers in Asia and South America, could intensify competition for flexible cargoes. It added that this could put upward pressure on spot prices in the coming months, particularly when demand rises. The assessment reflects the convergence of falling supply and differing importers' ability to store gas ahead of periods of higher consumption.
Spot gas prices at the European TTF hub averaged about $20 per million British thermal units between March and October 2026, up about 70% year on year. In Asia, spot LNG prices averaged $21.5 per million British thermal units over the same period, an increase of about 80% year on year. The International Energy Agency noted that the two price benchmarks rose in parallel, with Asian prices increasing at a higher annual rate. These figures show the higher cost of spot supplies in the two main markets during the months when gas flows through Hormuz were disrupted. The agency warned that further competition for flexible cargoes could add pressure to spot prices in the coming months.
The importance of flexible cargoes stems from the expansion of global LNG trade, which grew by more than 60% over the past decade, driven largely by increased U.S. liquefaction capacity. The share of contracts that allow the delivery destination to be changed rose from 29% in 2016 to more than 50% in 2025, according to the agency. The larger share means that more contracts allow cargoes to be redirected to different markets, underscoring the importance of competition for them when supply tightens. In the European Union, storage covered about 26% of gas consumption during the winter of 2025-2026, compared with about 30% in the winter of 2024-2025, according to data from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas. The decline shows that storage contributed less to consumption coverage in the two consecutive seasons.
In a simulation by the International Energy Agency, EU storage could fall to below 10% of working capacity by the end of March 2027 if the weather is colder than average and disruption to gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues. This scenario depends on two specific conditions and is not a certain outcome. The agency also says that lower storage levels would significantly increase the need to inject gas into storage during the summer of 2027. That could extend tightness in the global gas market into the following year, according to its assessment. These projections place the path to replenishing storage next summer among the developments that will determine how long market pressure persists after winter.