Hong Kong’s economy grows 5.2% in third quarter as exports and investment accelerate
Key Facts
Hong Kong’s real gross domestic product grew 5.2% year over year in the third quarter of 2026, up from 4.2% in the second quarter, according to preliminary estimates published by the government’s Census and Statistics Department on November 3. A government spokesman said growth was underpinned by accelerating exports and firm domestic demand. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP rose 1.9% from the second quarter. The figures show momentum broadening during the quarter, with trade and investment contributing alongside domestic spending. The official statement did not provide a market forecast for comparison with the result.
Goods exports were the strongest driver in the trade data, rising 30.4% in real terms year over year in the third quarter, after growth of 28.9% in the second quarter. Goods imports increased 29.9%, compared with a 29.3% rise in the previous quarter. The convergence of the two rates shows that export growth was accompanied by a strong expansion in demand for imported goods. The government did not describe exports as exceeding preliminary estimates; it reported their accelerating quarterly growth as part of the GDP accounts. The figures support the government’s attribution of part of the improvement in growth to exports, while imports also remained elevated.
Trade in services also improved in the third quarter. Exports of services rose 4.3% year over year, after growing 3.2% in the second quarter, while imports increased 5.6%, following a 3.1% rise in the previous quarter. The comparison puts services exports on a faster track than in the previous quarter, while import growth accelerated at a greater pace. The government spokesman said inbound tourism, visitor transit and financial activity supported services exports. Alongside goods exports, these components indicate that trade performance covered both goods and services, though their growth rates differed.
On domestic demand, growth in private consumption spending slowed slightly to 2.8% in the third quarter, from 2.9% in the second quarter, in real annual terms. By contrast, government consumption spending rose 1.7% after remaining nearly flat in the previous quarter. Gross domestic fixed capital formation stood out as an accelerating component of domestic demand, rising 7.3%, compared with growth of 3.7% in the second quarter. The comparison presents a mixed picture of domestic demand: private consumption continued but slowed, government spending improved, and investment grew at a faster pace. The government spokesman included firm domestic demand among the factors supporting GDP growth.
Over the broader period, real GDP grew 5.1% in the first three quarters of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier, the fastest growth for the corresponding period in five years, according to the government. The latest available year-over-year comparison for the third quarter of the previous year showed growth of 3.8%, after 3.1% in the second quarter of 2025; GDP also rose 0.7% quarter over quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis at the time. The government’s annual forecast announced in October for 2026 puts real growth in a range of 3.5% to 4.5%. In an assessment released in May, the International Monetary Fund forecast growth of 2.4% for the year, citing weak external demand and tighter financial conditions linked to the conflict in the Middle East. These estimates differ in release date and scope, while the current third-quarter figures remain preliminary.
The government linked the outlook for goods exports to continued global investment in artificial intelligence, which it said was expected to support them, and also cited inbound tourism, visitor transit and financial activity as supporting services exports. At the same time, it said external uncertainty warranted monitoring, singling out developments related to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and tighter monetary policies at major central banks. The government is scheduled to publish revised GDP figures and expanded statistical details for the third quarter on November 13, along with its revised forecast for GDP growth in 2026. That revision will provide a more recent reading of the quarterly result and the official annual estimate.