Iran Offers Two-Day Plan to Reopen Hormuz as Ship Incidents Continue and Traffic Slows

Key Facts

Iran said on 2 November that it had a two-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks with the United States if Washington met its demands, the Associated Press reported. The new timeline shortens the period Tehran had previously proposed, when it said implementing the plan could take a week if the United States agreed to 7 conditions, including lifting the blockade of Iranian ports. The announcement does not mean reopening has been settled; the plan remains conditional on Washington’s position and the outcome of contacts through mediators. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said the plan "remains the basis for negotiations with Washington through mediators," despite the shorter implementation period. Tehran is putting maritime arrangements and nuclear negotiations on a single negotiating track, while ship movements and safety remain under continued pressure.

Iran said ships crossing the strait after it reopens will follow a route agreed by Iran and Oman. The proposal gives passage arrangements a direct role in any potential understanding, alongside the lifting of the blockade and sanctions. The Associated Press reported that commercial shipping traffic in Hormuz remained low as attacks on vessels continued. In a separate incident on Monday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre said a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting the strait, causing a breach in its hull. The centre said all crew members were safe; the available information does not link the incident to reports of sounds heard on Qeshm Island.

Mediation is proceeding on the basis of an exchange in which Iran would halt its attacks in the strait and the United States would lift its blockade of Iranian ports, according to officials cited by the Associated Press. The agency said further talks were planned during the week, while a proposal being developed by mediators involved reopening the strait, lifting the U.S. blockade and then lifting sanctions. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iranian negotiators were in Qatar to discuss a proposal that could reopen the passage. He said there were no direct talks with Washington and that the outcome depended on its response to Iran’s questions. On 30 October, Reuters reported that Qatari mediators had returned to Tehran as part of coordinated efforts to reach an agreement between the United States and Iran. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said postponing a regional meeting to discuss managing maritime traffic was "in the interest of consensus."

The diplomatic track comes as claims of transit risks continue. On 30 October, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said 4 oil tankers had been hit by mines and caught fire in the strait, and that one of them was carrying more than 2 million barrels; the Associated Press said it could not verify the claims. On 31 October, Reuters cited Iran’s broadcaster as reporting a local official’s statement that an alleged U.S. attack on two fishing boats near Qeshm had injured one fisherman; there was no immediate U.S. confirmation. Iran’s IRNA news agency reported the same day that the two fishermen reported missing had been found. These reported events concern separate incidents and do not establish a link to the sounds reportedly heard on Qeshm on 2 November.

Qeshm is close to the entrance to the strait, about 14 miles, or 22 kilometres, from Bandar Abbas, and is important to Iran’s efforts to assert control over Hormuz, according to the Associated Press. I found no independent confirmation in the open sources cited here of the reports of sounds on 2 November. The island’s geography makes any development there notable in the context of shipping, but does not by itself identify the source or nature of the sounds. Against the backdrop of prices, a U.S. Energy Information Administration report issued in September showed that Brent crude averaged 91 dollars a barrel in August, up 7 dollars from July; the report attributed part of the increase to the renewed U.S. blockade of Iranian oil exports after attacks on tankers. These figures relate to August and do not represent a market response to November reports from Qeshm.

In its September outlook, the Energy Information Administration forecast that Brent would average about 90 dollars a barrel in the second half of 2026, before gradually falling to 74 dollars in 2027 as production increases and inventories are rebuilt. By contrast, the December Brent contract rose 2.4% to 117.64 dollars a barrel on 30 October, according to data reported by Reuters via AOL; the contract had touched 118 dollars before settlement and expired that day. Reuters linked market volatility to supply concerns and the possibility of escalation, saying prices could become more volatile over the following two weeks as the U.S. midterm elections approached on 3 November. China plans to send a special envoy to Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia in early to mid-November in an effort to reduce tensions and promote regional stability, it announced on 2 November. The next steps remain dependent on the outcome of mediation efforts and Washington’s response to Iran’s demands.