Brent rises to $106.47 on Nov. 3 after falling 7.63% in previous session
Key Facts
Brent crude closed at $106.47 a barrel on Nov. 3, up from $104.77 in the previous session, according to EL7 data. The close followed a $8.66, or 7.63%, plunge in futures on Nov. 2, according to Reuters data published via Investing.com. In early Asian trading on Tuesday, the contract had risen 48 cents, or 0.5%, to $105.25 a barrel at 0104 GMT. Reuters attributed the move to a report of a U.S. strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said the report "brought some risk premium back into oil prices."
The move followed a decline fueled by hopes of de-escalation, but quickly reflected a shift in the market’s assessment of the chances of escalation. Tehran said contacts with Washington to end the eight-month war were continuing, after days of talks with Qatari mediators ended with revised proposals but no breakthrough. Iranian sources cited by Reuters said oil prices fell about 4% on Monday on hopes mediation would lead to a diplomatic resolution of the crisis. But the same sources said they believed a new U.S. attack was more likely than an agreement. The divergence between bets on a settlement and the risk of escalation places oil’s Nov. 3 move in a market influenced both by developments in the war and the course of negotiations.
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman said the basis for dialogue through mediators remained a seven-step Iranian proposal, condensed so it could be implemented within two days. The proposal includes ending the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and exempting Iranian oil sales from U.S. restrictions, before other issues are discussed. According to an official familiar with the talks, Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran on Monday evening to discuss a version of a draft agreement that has been under negotiation for eight days. These terms reflect the direct link between supply and the outcome of negotiations, through restrictions on ports and crude sales and shipping through the strait. The round nevertheless ended without an agreement or breakthrough, according to Tehran.
Market data show the range of Brent futures, the most actively traded contract during the war, has widened; its price has moved between about $70 and $120 a barrel since before the war broke out, according to an Associated Press report. In more recent context, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the average spot price of Brent was $114 a barrel in September, up $23 from August, according to its report issued in October. This figure is the monthly average spot price, while EL7 data record the futures contract’s closes on Nov. 2 and 3; the two measures cover different periods. This provides context for price swings between the impact of supply shortages and signs of de-escalation, without changing the sequence of daily closes recorded in early November. The administration also linked continued restrictions on oil flows from the Middle East to an average production disruption of 4.5 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter of 2026.
In its October outlook, the EIA estimated that the average Brent spot price would be $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, then fall to $84 in 2027. It tied its estimate for the current quarter to the assumption that restrictions on oil flows from the Middle East would continue during the period, with production disrupted by an average of 4.5 million barrels per day. As for weekly data, the administration’s official schedule sets the rescheduled release of the report for the week ending Nov. 6 for Thursday, Nov. 12, at 12 p.m. Eastern time, because of the Veterans Day holiday. The revised date comes days after the session covered in this report, and is not Nov. 4 as stated in the earlier forecast for the report’s release. Iranian-U.S. talks and developments involving Qeshm and the Strait of Hormuz remain the main factors cited in the sources that accompanied oil moves during this period.