India’s Banking Liquidity Surplus Has Reached 7.3 Trillion Rupees Since September
Key Facts
The average liquidity surplus in India’s banking system has stood at 7.3 trillion rupees since the start of September, equivalent to about 2.7% of deposits, according to a Reuters report citing the Reserve Bank of India governor. That level has put banks’ available liquidity at the forefront of debate over funding sources and how they are evolving during the financial year. The governor said the large surplus would not last long, with much of it expected to be absorbed before the end of the financial year. "I expect a large amount of this liquidity to be absorbed during the financial year itself." This means banks may face a change in the funds available to them as the year progresses, according to the governor’s forecast.
The report linked a key portion of the liquidity surplus to dollar inflows generated by a temporary central bank program to attract foreign currencies. The program also helped push bank deposits to a record of about 284 trillion rupees in the second half of September, Reuters reported. It attracted inflows of about 133 billion dollars before the deposit window closed on 31 August, a month ahead of schedule. These figures show how program-related inflows fed through to the deposit base and the liquidity available in the banking system. With the program window closed, the surplus trajectory remains tied to other liquidity factors identified by the governor.
The governor said liquidity could decline due to natural factors, including cash leaking out of the banking system and banks’ reserve requirements. He also pointed to central bank operations, including buy-sell swaps, variable-rate reverse repo operations and open-market bond sales. These channels affect how much liquidity remains with banks, the governor said. His comments came in October, when the liquidity surplus had averaged 7.3 trillion rupees since the start of September. He reiterated that a large portion of the surplus was expected to be absorbed during the financial year itself, without specifying a more precise timing for the decline.
In the deposit market, Suryoday Small Finance Bank offers an annual return of up to 8.50% on domestic fixed deposits, according to the bank’s website. The rate applies to the bank’s fixed deposits and is not a return on interbank certificates of deposit. The figure offers an example of deposit rates available in the Indian market, while banking liquidity is measured by the overall surplus and its flows. The banking funding picture combines a high level of deposits recorded in September with the governor’s expectation that part of the liquidity surplus will decline during the financial year. The governor did not specify a date for the surplus to be absorbed, but pointed to factors that could drive its contraction.