Ball Expects More Than 10% Growth in EPS in 2026

Key Facts

Ball maintained its forecast for more than 10% growth in comparable diluted earnings per share in 2026 and said it expects to return at least $800 million to shareholders by year-end through share repurchases and dividends. The update came in its third-quarter results statement released on November 3, after global aluminum packaging shipments rose 4.7% year over year during the quarter. The company said it had already returned $431 million to shareholders in the first nine months of the year. On the earnings call, CEO Ron Lewis said volume growth kept the company on track to exceed its full-year volume expectations. "Global volumes improved 4.7% year over year, with growth in every region, reflecting continued momentum across our portfolio," he said.

Comparable diluted EPS was $1.10 in the third quarter, up 6.8% from $1.03 a year earlier. Comparable operating earnings rose to $451 million from $440 million, while comparable net earnings were $293 million, compared with $280 million in the same period of 2025. But results under U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) moved in the opposite direction: the company posted a net loss attributable to it of $94 million, or 36 cents per diluted share. That compared with net earnings of $321 million and EPS of $1.18 a year earlier. Ball attributed the loss mainly to a noncash charge of $475 million to settle a U.K. defined-benefit pension plan, as well as previously announced plant closure costs.

Results varied by geographic segment, with comparable operating earnings in North and Central America declining to $210 million from $215 million a year earlier. The company said higher operating expenses and plant start-up costs weighed on results there, partly offset by improved pricing and product mix and higher volumes. In Europe, the Middle East and Africa, comparable operating earnings rose to $170 million from $164 million, supported by higher volumes and improved pricing and product mix despite higher costs. South America posted $92 million, compared with $77 million a year earlier, as volume growth and improved pricing and mix contributed to the increase, although higher costs limited the gain. On the earnings call, the company said demand in North America benefited from energy and non-alcoholic drinks, while acquired plants in Hungary and Belgium supported volume growth in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

By volume, North and Central America recorded low-single-digit growth, compared with mid-single-digit growth in Europe, the Middle East and Africa and low-double-digit growth in South America, according to the earnings call. Lewis said expansion in the southern U.S. reflected continued momentum across the product portfolio, and pointed to the role of energy and non-alcoholic drinks in supporting the northern region. North American results also included start-up costs at the Millersburg facility, which the company expected to total about $25 million over 2026. It also said the benefit from the timing of passing through metal costs in the third quarter would be reflected in the fourth quarter. These factors show how shipment growth had differing effects on earnings across regions, as volume improvements coincided with varying cost pressures by segment.

Ball issued a free cash flow forecast of $900 million for 2026, compared with its February forecast of more than $900 million. On the earnings call, management said expected capital spending for the year had risen to $650 million, and that comparable net debt to EBITDA was expected to be 2.7 times by year-end. The company also detailed its capital return plan, expecting share repurchases of at least $600 million, as part of total shareholder returns of about $800 million during the year. Expansion plans are underpinned by new plants in Germany and India; Lewis said the projects are supported by long-term customer demand and attractive returns. He added that they would support volume growth and economic value added through the end of the decade.

Ball shares fell 6.68% to $63.52 before the market opened on November 3, compared with the previous session's close of $68.07, according to Investing.com. The move followed results showing growth in shipments and comparable earnings, alongside a GAAP accounting loss and higher operating and start-up costs in some regions. In a separate snapshot published after the results announcement, the stock rose 0.16%; that move applied to the period following the announcement and did not reflect its subsequent direction during the session. The company shipped 111.9 billion units of aluminum packaging products globally in 2025, and 74% of the aluminum used in its global beverage packaging business came from recycled sources. The expected Millersburg costs and the effect of the metal pass-through benefit are among the factors the company cited for the fourth quarter, while its earnings, cash flow and capital return forecasts remain set for 2026.