ADM Raises Lower End of 2026 Earnings Forecast to $5.50 a Share
Key Facts
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) raised its 2026 adjusted earnings-per-share forecast to a range of $5.50 to $5.80, from a previous estimate of $5.15 to $5.60, Reuters reported on Nov. 3. The update raises the lower end of the forecast and lowers the upper end, a revision that reflects an improved view of expected earnings for the year. The announcement coincided with quarterly results showing adjusted earnings per share above the average analyst estimate. But revenue did not meet expectations, putting earnings and revenue performance on divergent paths. The company linked the earnings improvement to the biofuels environment, its broad presence in North America and strong execution.
Adjusted earnings per share were $1.77 in the quarter ended Sept. 30, topping the average analyst estimate of $1.60, according to Reuters. By contrast, revenue was $22.34 billion, below an estimate of $23.1 billion, Reuters reported via Investing.com. Still, revenue rose 10% year over year, from $20.37 billion in the third quarter of 2025. The results showed that sales growth from a year earlier did not prevent the company from falling short of quarterly revenue expectations. The earnings-per-share beat was supported by improved profits in several operating businesses, though growth rates varied.
Agricultural Services and Oilseeds was the biggest source of improvement, with operating profit rising 105% to $778 million in the third quarter, compared with $379 million a year earlier, according to ADM data published via MarketScreener. In the crushing business for seeds and grains, profit jumped to $311 million from $13 million in the year-earlier period, according to Reuters. The figures reflect a major improvement in businesses that handle crops and raw materials, while crushing profit growth far exceeded the year-earlier level. Reuters said higher prices for U.S. corn and soybeans since the outbreak of the war on Iran prompted farmers to accelerate sales of inventories from the previous crop year, after delaying supplies for months because of weak prices. Higher oil prices also boosted demand for biofuel inputs and supported prices for crops including corn and soybeans used to produce renewable fuel.
Other businesses posted mixed gains: operating profit rose 40% to $470 million in Carbohydrate Solutions and increased 3% to $134 million in Nutrition, Reuters reported via Investing.com. Across the segments, operating profit totaled $1.382 billion, up 64% from the third quarter of 2025, according to company data published via MarketScreener. Chief Executive Juan Luciano said the results were tied to a favorable biofuels environment, the company’s broad presence in North America and good execution. He added: "These results were driven by a favorable biofuels environment, along with our broad presence in North America and the good execution of our team." The company puts these factors at the heart of its explanation for improved earnings across its businesses, with a clear variation in their growth rates.
ADM lowered its expected 2026 capital spending range to between $1.2 billion and $1.3 billion, from a previous range of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion, Reuters reported via Investing.com. In premarket trading after the results were announced on Nov. 3, the stock rose just 0.01%, according to Reuters, as an earnings beat coincided with revenue below analysts’ estimates. The company also said its updated forecast includes expected year-over-year operating profit improvement in all segments in the fourth quarter. That forecast factors an expected year-end improvement across the businesses into the company’s new annual estimate. The lower capital spending range accompanies the financial forecast revision announced alongside the third-quarter results.