Lufthansa Cuts 2026 Profit Outlook Ceiling to €2.0 Billion Despite Third-Quarter Earnings Growth

Key Facts

Lufthansa Group on November 3 cut its 2026 adjusted operating profit forecast to a range of €1.7 billion to €2.0 billion, from a previous upper limit of €2.2 billion, according to its third-quarter interim report. The decision came despite higher third-quarter earnings, with the group posting adjusted operating profit of €1.407 billion, up 6% from the same period a year earlier. The company said, however, that its expected fuel bill for the year was now about €600 million higher than its estimate three months ago. It said the increase made reaching the previous upper limit less likely. The new range keeps the lower end at €1.7 billion while lowering the expected profit ceiling for the year.

Third-quarter net profit was €1.257 billion, up 30% from €966 million a year earlier, while revenue rose 9% to €12.245 billion from €11.244 billion. Lufthansa said fuel costs increased €543 million year on year during the quarter, a rise of 19%. It added that revenue growth, continued strong demand and cost discipline more than offset the increase. The figures show improving quarterly revenue and earnings alongside fuel pressure on the full-year outlook. The strong quarterly result therefore did not prevent the company from lowering its annual forecast ceiling.

The group had kept its 2026 adjusted operating profit range at €1.7 billion to €2.2 billion in August, after posting adjusted operating profit of €383 million in the second quarter. In that quarter’s report, it said revenue rose 8% to €11.1 billion, while profit fell from €870 million in the same period of 2025. It also linked uncertainty at the time to volatile kerosene prices and shorter booking cycles in passenger business, and kept its adjusted free cash flow forecast at about €0.9 billion for the year. The adjustment announced in November reflects the continued sensitivity of the outlook to fuel costs, despite improved earnings and revenue in the third quarter. The initial guidance published in the 2025 annual report had projected significantly higher adjusted operating profit in 2026 than in the previous year; in 2025, profit was €1.960 billion, up 19% from €1.645 billion in 2024.

In passenger business, the company said higher kerosene prices and temporary flight cancellations affected performance, offset by strong demand, particularly on Asian routes. Passenger business capacity fell 1% year on year in the first nine months of 2026. By contrast, Lufthansa Cargo’s adjusted operating profit rose to €361 million over the same period, compared with €184 million a year earlier. Lufthansa Technik’s adjusted operating profit also increased 17% to €515 million. Cargo and maintenance results provided sources of support alongside demand and revenue in the face of higher fuel costs, while performance varied across the group’s businesses during the period.

Chief Financial Officer Till Streichert said the full-year operating result would depend on demand, fuel costs and Lufthansa Cargo’s performance in the fourth quarter. The group expects available capacity at its airlines in 2026 to remain close to the previous year’s level, while generating significantly higher revenue. In August, the company had indicated that its full-year capacity outlook had settled at the previous year’s level, after an earlier estimate of growth of about 0 to 2%. This puts the focus for the remaining outlook on demand trends, fuel costs and cargo’s contribution in the final months of the year. The 2026 annual report is scheduled for publication on March 5, 2027, followed by the first interim report for 2027 on April 30, 2027.