EL7.AI
Central BanksMediumUpdated×2•Originally published 3 November 2026•Updated 4 November 2026•
3 min read

Investor Bets Put Odds of Fed Rate Hike in December at About 85%

Key Facts

1An Associated Press report cited a probability of about 85% that the Fed would raise rates at its December meeting.
2On October 28, the Fed kept the target range at 3.75%-4.00% in a 10-to-2 vote.
3The U.S. consumer price index rose 3.7% year over year in September, while the index excluding food and energy rose 2.6%.
4The October jobs report is due November 6 and the consumer price index on November 10.

Investors saw a probability of about 85% that the U.S. Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at its next meeting on December 8 and 9, according to an Associated Press report published after the bank’s October decision. The figure reflects the investor pricing cited in the report; the Fed has not announced a decision on its December meeting. On October 28, the committee kept the federal funds target range at 3.75%-4.00%. The hold was approved by a 10-to-2 vote, reflecting a split within the committee over the appropriate move. The next meeting will follow the release of October jobs and inflation reports, two scheduled milestones ahead of the decision.

The Fed’s statement showed that committee members Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferred to raise the target range by a quarter percentage point at the October meeting. The committee majority, by contrast, left the range unchanged at its announced level of 3.75%-4.00%. The bank said economic activity was expanding at a solid pace, while inflation remained elevated. It added that the accumulation of further information would help the committee determine the appropriate policy stance to return inflation to its goal. That language places data released in the weeks after the meeting among the information the committee will draw on before deciding its next move.

Before holding rates in October, the Fed had raised the target range by a quarter percentage point on September 16 to 3.75%-4.00%; that decision was unanimous, with a 12-to-0 vote. September data showed the U.S. consumer price index rose 3.7% year over year. The index excluding food and energy also rose 2.6% year over year that month. These figures provide context for the bank’s subsequent description of inflation in its statement as still elevated. The October decision, meanwhile, showed that the committee was not unanimous in keeping rates unchanged, as two members favored an increase.

The U.S. jobs report for October is scheduled for release on November 6, followed by the consumer price index for the same month on November 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Both releases are due before the Fed’s scheduled meeting on December 8 and 9. The committee has set December 9 for its post-meeting news conference. These milestones precede the committee’s decision on the rate range, while the Fed said that further information would help it determine the appropriate policy stance. The Associated Press report cited investors’ estimate of about 85% odds of a hike after the October meeting.