WTI falls 4.1% to $99.83 as diplomatic moves on Iran unfold
Key Facts
West Texas Intermediate fell 4.1% to $99.83 a barrel by 1250 GMT on Monday, Reuters reported, reflecting some easing of immediate pressure on oil prices. The decline came as Iranian consultations with Qatari mediators continued over ending the war. An official briefed on the talks said a draft proposal was being circulated, with a follow-up meeting possible. The Associated Press reported that the Iranian proposal could allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen within two days if the United States met several conditions. Tehran, however, said it was not holding direct talks with Washington, leaving the course of negotiations unresolved.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday that the purpose of the talks was to continue consultations with Qatari mediators, adding that Tehran was ready for "defense and diplomacy." The remark framed the consultations as ongoing mediation, rather than an announced agreement to end the war. Reuters quoted an analyst at KCM Trade as saying that remaining hopes for diplomatic progress, alongside the absence of any tangible military escalation over the weekend, had eased some of the immediate heat in prices. The analyst said those factors had "taken some immediate heat out of prices for now." Supply-related risks remained in the background of market moves.
Brent ended October at its highest level in six months, Reuters reported, as traders worried that the conflict in the Middle East could escalate after the U.S. midterm elections. The Strait of Hormuz remains significant because of the oil flows disrupted during the war. The chief executive of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said global inventories had been depleted by nearly 1 billion barrels since shipping disruption through the strait disrupted supplies. The U.S. Energy Information Administration linked disruptions to crude oil and petroleum-product flows through the strait in the second quarter of 2026 to higher prices and increased volatility during most of that quarter. Monday’s decline therefore coincided with the continued impact of supply disruption on market calculations.
The Energy Information Administration said Brent prices generally declined during the rest of the second quarter after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17 aimed, among other things, at resuming traffic through the strait. After oil-tanker traffic through it increased, prices continued to fall for the rest of the quarter. But prices rose in the first two weeks of the third quarter after military strikes resumed and doubts about the agreement emerged. The trajectory shows how oil moves were linked to developments in shipping and security agreements during the year. In Reuters’ assessment, current hopes for mediation have not ended the concerns that pushed Brent to its October peak.
In U.S. equity markets, futures rose on Monday after a sell-off on Friday, when stocks posted their worst performance since June. S&P 500 futures gained 0.5%, Dow Jones futures rose 0.6% and Nasdaq futures advanced 0.8%, according to the Associated Press. Investors had sold technology and artificial-intelligence stocks amid concerns that heavy investment in AI might not generate returns quickly enough. The rebound in futures followed a session in which those concerns weighed on sector shares. The available information did not include Monday moves in the cash indexes.
In currencies, the dollar rose to 157.91 yen from 157.49 yen, while the euro climbed to $1.1211 from $1.1160, according to the Associated Press. These figures contradict the first draft’s description of the dollar’s moves against the two currencies, showing it rising against both the yen and the euro. At the corporate level, Apple and Palantir were scheduled to report results after the market close on Monday. AMD was also scheduled to report quarterly results on Tuesday. These announcements add technology-company earnings to the list of events investors are watching this week.
Attention turns on Tuesday to the U.S. midterm elections, scheduled for Nov. 3, 2026, according to the Federal Election Commission. Reuters said the result could determine whether Democrats can wrest control of Congress from President Donald Trump’s Republican Party, potentially reshaping market expectations for politics. On the same day, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the September 2026 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey at 10 a.m. Eastern time. Seven OPEC+ countries also decided to keep required production for December at the level set for September 2026. The alliance set Nov. 29 for its next review meeting.
On the supply outlook, Goldman Sachs said Brent could reach $140 a barrel in 2027 if Gulf production remained 3.5 million barrels a day below its 2025 average. The bank tied that scenario to continued production shortfalls and identified shipping attacks, infrastructure damage and a sustained risk premium among factors that could push prices higher. The price estimate remains conditional on the production gap staying at that level, Reuters reported. Elections, economic data, technology-company earnings and central-bank meetings are among this week’s events that Reuters said would test investors. OPEC+’s next meeting is on Nov. 29.