USDA Raises Corn Yield to 181.2 Bushels per Acre for 2026/27
Key Facts
The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its estimate for average corn yield in the 2026/27 marketing year to 181.2 bushels per acre in its October estimate, compared with the September estimate initially published at 178.5 bushels per acre. The department estimated production for the season at 16.034 billion bushels, after production reached about 16.964 billion bushels in 2025/26. The projected yield for the new season is below the 186.5 bushels per acre average recorded in 2025/26. October data showed the production estimate rose from September even as projected yield remained below the previous season's level.
On the demand side, the agriculture department raised its estimate for corn use in ethanol and byproducts in the 2026/27 season to 5.650 billion bushels, from 5.600 billion in the September estimate. It also increased its export estimate to 3.300 billion bushels, compared with 3.275 billion the previous month. The revisions reflect increases in two components of expected crop use during the season. But the department at the same time lowered its projected average farm price to $4.70 per bushel, from $4.80 in the September estimate. The estimate remains above the projected average price for the 2025/26 season of $4.16 per bushel.
CME Group said trading in corn futures set a daily record on Oct. 9, reaching 1,206,376 contracts. The volume surpassed the previous record of 1,128,597 contracts, set on March 29, 2019. The trading surge came on the day the USDA released its estimates, as market participants digested the new yield and production figures. Contracts recorded record activity, according to the group’s data, but trading volume alone does not determine the direction of trades or traders’ positions. The figure places the report day among the most active sessions for corn futures since the previous record was set.
After the October report was released, the National Agricultural Statistics Service reported a processing error in acreage weights that affected the September estimate. The service corrected that month’s national yield estimate to 178.8 bushels per acre, instead of the 178.5 figure initially published. The service said, "October yield and production forecasts remain unchanged." It said the correction concerned the September estimate, while the October estimates for yield and production remained unchanged after a review of the data and procedures. It added that it would apply additional pre-release checks to verify acreage weights and yield calculations.
The statistics service said it would add pre-release checks to verify acreage weights and yield calculations, after discovering the processing error related to the September estimate. This comes as the season’s estimates remain subject to updates in the crop-reporting cycle. The service’s calendar scheduled the next "Crop Production" report for Nov. 10, 2026, at 12 p.m. Eastern time. The next report will provide another update to production and yield estimates during the season. As for the October estimates, the service said they had not changed after a review of the data and procedures.