OPEC+ Holds December Output at September Levels as U.S. Crude Stocks Fall 1.9 Million Barrels
Key Facts
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman decided to maintain in December 2026 the production levels required for September, according to an OPEC statement issued after the seven countries met on November 1. The decision holds the production baseline steady for the final month of the year, as participants reviewed global market conditions and outlooks during a virtual meeting. The announcement came after U.S. data showed commercial crude inventories fell 1.9 million barrels in the week ended October 23, against expectations for an increase of 15 thousand barrels. Inventories stood at 410.6 million barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, as reported by Reuters via Kitco News. Gasoline inventories, by contrast, rose, showing diverging moves across components of U.S. stocks.
The decline in crude was larger than the slight shift analysts had expected: a Reuters poll forecast an inventory increase of 15 thousand barrels, while the data showed a draw of 1.9 million barrels. Gasoline stocks rose by 3.9 million barrels to 209.2 million barrels, while forecasts had pointed to a draw of 900 thousand barrels. Distillate inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels to 102.8 million, compared with expectations for a decline of 900 thousand barrels. Gasoline’s increase therefore ran counter to the forecast trend, while the decline in distillates exceeded the expected draw. The figures reflect differing moves among petroleum products during the same week, rather than a uniform direction across all inventory categories.
The decline in crude inventories coincided with a 796 thousand barrels per day drop in U.S. net imports during the week, according to the Energy Information Administration. Exports also rose by 1.4 million barrels per day to 4.85 million barrels per day. These trade flows provide additional context for the weekly inventory change, as net imports fell while outbound shipments increased. In trading on October 28, when the inventory data were released, Brent crude was at $115.66 per barrel, up $1.78, while West Texas Intermediate rose $2.48 to $102.38 per barrel. At the close on November 2, Brent stood at $106.1 per barrel and WTI at $97.46, according to EL7 data.
Globally, the International Energy Agency estimated that observed oil inventories fell by 10 million barrels in September 2026. This came as onshore inventories dropped by 113 million barrels, offset by an increase in oil on water, according to the agency’s October report. On the demand side, the agency forecast that global consumption would decline by an average of 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026, to 102.4 million barrels per day. It attributed the forecast to higher prices and deteriorating economic prospects in some countries, which it said were weighing on consumption. These estimates combine a decline in observed inventories with expected weakness in demand, while the seven countries kept December production at the levels required for September.
The December decision comes against the broader backdrop of production policy: Reuters said before the OPEC meeting that the group still had another layer of production cuts of about 2 million barrels per day covering most members through the end of 2026. While the November 1 meeting kept December output at the levels required for September, attention now turns to the seven countries’ scheduled November 29 meeting to review market conditions. A Rystad analyst said, according to Reuters, that the ministerial meeting on that date would be the “most important test,” as it would set the framework for OPEC+ production in 2027. As for U.S. data, the Energy Information Administration’s schedule lists the next weekly release on November 12, covering the week ended November 6. That date follows the October 28 report, according to the official schedule, which noted a Veterans Day holiday.