U.S. Manufacturing Index Holds at 54.9 in October as Order Growth Slows

Key Facts

The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 54.9 in the final October reading, according to a summary published by InvestingLive. The survey showed manufacturing continued to expand, but growth in output and orders lost some momentum. New order growth slowed to its weakest pace since March, the same summary said. The index nevertheless remained in expansion territory, while S&P Global described manufacturing activity as continuing to expand strongly in October. The reading combines continued sector growth with a slowdown in demand and output compared with the previous period.

Not all survey indicators weakened: factory employment recorded its strongest growth since April 2021, according to InvestingLive. This indicates factories continued to increase hiring despite slower growth in new orders and output. Export orders also rose marginally for the first time since June 2025, after a period in which they had not increased, according to the survey comparison. The improvement in exports adds support to the demand picture, but was limited. Meanwhile, supplier delivery times lengthened by the most since August 2022, reflecting continued extensions in supply times.

Prices emerged as another feature of the manufacturing picture: selling prices rose at their fastest pace since September 2022, according to the InvestingLive summary. In its broader survey of activity, S&P Global said the overall increase in prices for goods and services was the largest since August 2022, and that price pressures had broadened across different sectors. Aggregate input costs also rose at their fastest pace since November 2022, excluding the increase recorded in September. These indicators link continued manufacturing activity with rising cost and price pressures. S&P Global said growth in output and prices, alongside employment gains, sends a "hawkish-leaning signal" to policymakers.

The S&P Global composite survey placed manufacturing within broader growth in U.S. private-sector activity. The private sector output index fell to 57.6 in October from 58.4 in September, but continued to point to the second-fastest expansion since March 2022, the company said. S&P Global estimated that the survey data were consistent with annualized GDP growth of 5.0% in October, compared with a 4.0% pace for the third quarter as a whole. On costs, The Associated Press reported that volatility in U.S. trade policy had made planning difficult for companies and raised the cost of many materials. The agency also noted that higher oil prices had increased shipping costs.

Attention now turns to U.S. factory orders for September, due on November 3, with TD Economics forecasting a 1.2% monthly increase. On November 4, the October ISM services index was scheduled for release, with a forecast of 54.8 against 54.9 in the previous period. The final S&P Global services index, a survey separate from the ISM index, was also scheduled for release that day; its previous reading was 57.9. The week’s calendar also includes the September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on Tuesday, followed by the monthly employment report covering October on Friday, according to The Associated Press. These releases distinguish between manufacturing and services indicators and provide subsequent updates on demand and the labor market.