Agricultural pledges top $15 billion ahead of US midterm elections, including $8 billion diesel payment
Key Facts
The Associated Press estimated the value of agricultural pledges and initiatives announced by President Donald Trump’s administration in the weeks before the midterm elections at about $15 billion, in an effort to help producers cope with rising diesel and fertilizer costs. The agency said the initiatives are not one confirmed cash package, but a mix of payments, loans, grants and other programs. The support comes as the administration attributes higher input costs to tariffs and the war with Iran, while the trade war with China has hurt sales of US agricultural products. The scale of the commitments puts farmers at the center of political moves ahead of the elections, but the timing of the arrival of most of the money remains uncertain. The largest share is concentrated in a plan for a one-time payment of $8 billion to farmers affected by higher diesel prices.
The US Department of Agriculture said it would announce further details of the payment plan during November, but did not set a date for the money to reach farmers. Trump announced at a campaign rally in Kansas on October 19 that farmers would receive $8 billion to address higher diesel costs during the fall harvest season. A Reuters report said diesel prices have risen 38% since the US war with Iran began in February. The plan thus sets out a specific part of the administration’s pledges, while the payment schedule and eligibility requirements remain undisclosed in the available details. Its designation as a one-time payment also distinguishes it from an ongoing support program.
Other initiatives include the Agriculture Department’s purchase of up to $472.5 million in agricultural commodities, which will be provided to charitable programs. The Associated Press reported that the purchases will be funded mainly by the department, so they do not require immediate congressional approval. In October, the department also announced that it was issuing about $1.8 billion in 2026 Conservation Reserve Program payments to participating farmers and landowners. These programs sit alongside the diesel plan as part of a broader set of agricultural measures, not all of which take the form of direct payments to farmers. The announced total of the initiatives therefore is not equivalent to a single cash amount immediately available to producers.
The pledges coincide with existing payments under farm income support programs. The Agriculture Department said the ARC and PLC programs would generate about $13.8 billion in total payments to eligible producers for the 2025 crop, by far the largest annual payment since the programs were established in the 2014 farm bill. The department added that no prior crop year since 2015 had come close to that level. At the same time, the department’s Economic Research Service forecast that inflation-adjusted net farm income would fall by $9.1 billion, or 5.5%, in 2026 compared with 2025. The expected decline puts the new support in the context of broader pressure on the sector’s income, alongside fuel and fertilizer costs.
A farm management specialist at Kansas State University said his estimate was that diesel payments would cover more than the increase in fuel costs and could also help offset higher fertilizer prices. But he described their impact as temporary, explaining that the payments do not address the broader factors driving prices higher. The Associated Press quoted political science professor Alexandra Middlewood as saying she had heard mixed reactions from farmers, with some viewing the programs as “a one-time bailout instead of a long-term solution.” The divide reflects the difference between easing immediate pressure on operating costs and addressing the causes of weak farm profitability. Details of the largest payment remain a focus after the department promised more information during November.