Saudi crude export estimates diverge between 5.72 and 7.9 million barrels per day in October
Key Facts
Estimates of Saudi crude exports diverged in October, with TankerTrackers.com saying they reached about 7.9 million barrels per day during the first 29 days of the month, up from 5.8 million in September. By contrast, Kpler data showed exports at 5.72 million barrels per day as of the time of Reuters’ report, compared with 6.70 million in September. The gap between the estimates reflects the difficulty of forming a unified picture of cargo movements during the month. Reuters reported that many tankers had switched off their tracking signals, making actual volumes harder to estimate. The reading of the export trend therefore varies according to each tracker’s data and the period it covers.
According to TankerTrackers.com’s preliminary estimate, exports during the first 29 days were split between 3.32 million barrels per day from the west coast and 4.55 million from the east coast. Petro-Logistics said exports from the port of Yanbu rose after declining in September. The port’s activity has taken on importance amid disruption to shipping in the region, but sources have not linked the increase in Yanbu shipments to a specific explanation for the divergence in totals. In a separate estimate, Petro-Logistics’ Virginie Bahnik said volumes passing through the Strait of Hormuz had fallen by 2 to 3 million barrels per day from their peak earlier in October. She added that Saudi Arabia’s total exports remained strong according to the company’s estimate, a reading that differs from Kpler’s figure, which showed a decline from September.
Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was targeted on 10 September, according to the Saudi Press Agency, citing an official at the Ministry of Energy. The official said the pipeline was shut down as a precaution and that emergency and technical teams began responding to the incident immediately. The International Energy Agency said the flow suspension was temporary and that the pipeline was repaired and reopened within days. It added that the shutdown coincided with increased Chinese purchases, prompting more Saudi oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. An estimate for repairing damage to the pipeline, including a major pumping facility, was three to five weeks, according to officials briefed on the details who spoke to The Associated Press; that report did not specify that the period related to an October incident.
The pipeline’s importance lies in its ability to move crude away from the Strait of Hormuz; Rystad Energy analysis estimated that it had carried an average of between 2.6 and 4 million barrels per day since late August. The analysis said a complete halt in pipeline flows could mean that volume was lost from the market. The International Energy Agency said the resumption of pipeline flows lifted exports rerouted around the strait by 970,000 barrels per day in September, to 5.6 million barrels per day. The agency estimates that alternative pipeline routes available to bypass the strait provide capacity of between 3.5 and 5.5 million barrels per day. It cautions, however, that the logistical capacity to reroute large volumes of supply has not been well tested.
The disruption to shipping also affected prices and transport costs. The International Energy Agency said North Sea Dated crude rose by 26.17 dollars per barrel month on month in September, to 116.89 dollars, linking the increase to renewed fighting in the Middle East, the 11 September attack on the pipeline and higher shipping costs. By the time its report was prepared in October, Brent was up 13% since the start of September to about 107 dollars per barrel, while North Sea Dated crude had climbed 43% to 134 dollars. The cost of shipping crude from the Gulf to Asia on a large tanker also exceeded 37 dollars per barrel by mid-October, more than five times its pre-war level. The agency said escalating attacks on energy infrastructure and tanker traffic threatened to disrupt the recovery in supply, and that the oil market was likely to remain in deficit through the end of the year, with middle-distillate tightness extending into 2027, while a potential surplus could emerge in 2027 if conflicts are resolved.