Roblox Forecasts Fourth-Quarter Bookings Decline of 10% to 15% Despite Revenue Growth
Key Facts
Roblox forecast fourth-quarter 2026 bookings would fall 10% to 15% year over year, to between $1.890 billion and $2.000 billion, while revenue would grow 4% to 12%, to a range of $1.470 billion to $1.580 billion. The company issued the estimates in its financial filing, alongside quarterly results showing declines in daily active users and engagement hours. Shares fell 19.1% in premarket trading on October 30, according to Investing.com. The platform estimated that the top end of the bookings forecast was slightly below analysts’ consensus of about $2.02 billion. But not all of the guidance fell short of market expectations: the company’s revenue range points to growth, despite its forecast for lower bookings.
The company forecast a consolidated net loss of between $363 million and $423 million in the fourth quarter, and an adjusted EBITDA loss of between $10 million and $70 million. It also expected negative free cash flow of between $105 million and $190 million. Investing.com reported that analysts’ consensus called for bookings of about $2.02 billion and that the company expected adjusted EBITDA to turn negative during the quarter. The quarterly outlook therefore combines accounting revenue growth with continuing losses, alongside an expected decline in bookings. These indicators reflect the difference in timing between revenue recognition and bookings collection.
Roblox said most bookings are recognized as revenue over the estimated 27-month lifetime of a paying user. Revenue can therefore grow in a quarter when bookings decline, because it includes amounts from bookings in earlier periods, particularly elevated bookings in 2025. This gap between the two measures puts the fourth-quarter outlook in context: bookings measure current activity, while revenue also reflects a carryover from prior spending. In its annual report, the company said bookings are typically stronger in the fourth quarter because of the holiday season, while engagement hours tend to decline after the summer, in September, October and November. It also said its bookings guidance assumes a seasonal decline in daily active users between the third and fourth quarters, similar to what it has observed in recent years.
Daily active users totaled 138 million in the third quarter, down 9% from the same period a year earlier, while engagement hours reached about 34 billion, a decline of 15%. The user count was below analysts’ estimate of 145.8 million, according to Investing.com. Average monthly unique payers fell 16% to 30 million, even as average bookings per payer rose 5%. Bookings per hour also increased about 4% globally and 2% in the United States and Canada. The figures point to a narrowing base of users and payers alongside higher spending per payer and per hour of engagement.
The company said in its report that average daily unique payers fell to about 1.8 million in the third quarter, from about 2.3 million a year earlier, and attributed part of the bookings decline to that drop. In the same period, the consolidated net loss narrowed to $230 million from $258 million in the third quarter of 2025, and diluted loss per share was $0.32. But the company said monetization trends among younger cohorts in the United States continued to face challenges because of difficult year-over-year comparisons, partly offset by improvements to its recommendation algorithm. Specified infrastructure and safety expenses rose 24% to $258 million, driven by investments related to artificial intelligence. The spending coincides with the company’s forecast of an operating cash loss in the fourth quarter, as platform activity indicators decline.
Bleecker Street Research announced a short position in the stock on October 27 and published allegations about child safety controls; Reuters said it had not independently verified those allegations. This came before the share decline on October 30, which coincided with the release of financial guidance and user data. In premarket trading that day, the stock fell 19.1%, according to Investing.com coverage. The events are separated in time: the short position was announced before the market reaction to results and guidance published later. The company expects bookings to decline despite revenue growth in the fourth quarter, which ends in December 2026.