Pfizer Raises Low-End of 2026 Revenue Forecast to $60.5 Billion
Key Facts
On August 4, Pfizer raised the low end of its 2026 annual revenue forecast to $60.5 billion from $59.5 billion previously, while holding the high end at $62.5 billion. In its second-quarter earnings release, the company said the revision lifts expected revenue at the midpoint of the range by $500 million. But the updated overall guidance included a cut in its forecast for revenue from COVID-19 products to about $4 billion, from about $5 billion previously. Pfizer attributed the higher overall forecast to better-than-expected performance from products not related to COVID, while lowering its estimate for COVID products. The update therefore reflects a divergence between performance across the rest of the portfolio and expectations for pandemic products, rather than an improvement in vaccine sales estimates alone.
Second-quarter revenue was $15.034 billion, compared with $14.653 billion in the same period of 2025, an announced increase of 3% and operational growth of 1%. Pfizer said operational revenue rose 5% excluding contributions from Comirnaty and Paxlovid, its COVID-19 vaccine and treatment. The comparison shows that revenue growth outside those two products was faster than overall operational growth during the quarter. At the same time, the company said a decline in revenue from COVID products contributed to the quarter's performance, consistent with its lower annual forecast for the category. The low end of the 2026 revenue forecast therefore rose despite the cut in the estimate for COVID products, supported by the rest of the portfolio.
The revenue forecast adjustment was not accompanied by a change to Pfizer's 2026 adjusted diluted earnings-per-share range, which remained at $2.80 to $3.00. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.77 in the second quarter, versus $0.78 in the same quarter of 2025. That leaves annual earnings guidance unchanged as the low end of the revenue forecast moved higher and the estimate for COVID products declined. The company also announced expected additional savings of $2.5 billion from productivity initiatives, to be realized during 2027–2029. This sets a later time frame for the operational outlook announced with the second-quarter results.
The estimates for COVID products come amid earlier shifts in the vaccine market. In the third quarter of 2025, Comirnaty revenue fell 20% operationally, and Pfizer said the decline was mainly tied to a narrowing of the U.S. vaccination recommendation and a delay in approval of the updated vaccine. On August 27, 2026, Pfizer and BioNTech announced that they had received U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval for a Comirnaty formulation for the 2026–2027 season, targeting the XFG variant. Authorized groups included adults aged 65 and older, and people aged 5 to 64 with at least one underlying condition that raises the risk of severe outcomes. The companies said shipments of the updated vaccine would begin immediately and that it would be available at U.S. pharmacies, hospitals and clinics in the days following the announcement.
Pfizer said selecting the XFG variant is consistent with FDA guidance for the preferred formulation of COVID-19 vaccines for use in the United States starting in fall 2026. The company is scheduled to report third-quarter results on November 3, 2026. The date follows the announcement of approval for the updated formulation and precedes the vaccination season it targets, while the next report will provide the latest quarterly reading on performance after the annual forecast adjustment. The company had kept the high end of its annual revenue forecast at $62.5 billion while raising the low end to $60.5 billion. Its annual estimate for revenue from COVID products remained about $1 billion below the previous level, at about $4 billion.