Brent Closes at $113.43 Amid Iran Talks and Warnings of Renewed Strikes
Key Facts
Brent crude closed at $113.43 a barrel on Oct. 30, after reaching $110.8 the previous day, while West Texas Intermediate closed at $104.12 after $102. These levels, recorded in EL7 data, came ahead of mixed diplomatic and military developments concerning Iran. Axios reported that U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a blunt phone call on Saturday about Washington’s negotiations with Tehran and when fighting might resume. According to the outlet’s sources, Netanyahu is pushing for a strike on Iran immediately after Tuesday’s midterm elections, while Trump currently wants to let negotiations run their course. But the possibility of renewed military operations remains unresolved, putting the diplomatic track alongside fresh escalation risks in the oil market’s backdrop.
Trump gave no details about the substance of his call with Netanyahu, telling reporters he had a "very good conversation" with him, according to the Associated Press. Axios quoted Trump as saying negotiations with Iran were "going very well" and that he was "in no big rush." At the same time, he said the United States had to "deal with" one or two nuclear sites in Iran. His comments reflect a willingness to give talks time while keeping the nuclear issue among the matters he said Washington must address. The Associated Press reported that Trump had not made a final decision on launching new strikes, despite repeatedly discussing possible military action after the Nov. 3 election.
Qatari mediation is pushing to resume direct talks between Washington and Tehran. Axios reported that Qatari mediators met Iranian officials on Sunday for the third consecutive day, seeking an agreement that would allow those talks to resume. But Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, according to the report, that there was no agreement yet and that reaching one depended on U.S. answers to Iran’s questions. In comments reported by the Associated Press, Araghchi said Tehran "continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed" and is working with mediators to review ideas in a proposal it put forward last month to return to a ceasefire. The contacts keep the door open to negotiations, while the points of contention on which a new agreement depends remain unresolved.
Meanwhile, a number of Middle Eastern countries and regional allies received U.S. warnings to prepare for possible renewed military action against Iran, as well as the possibility that Tehran could retaliate against them, according to the Associated Press. The agency reported that Washington told its allies a new round of military action could last several days. Regional officials are also preparing for the possibility of an Iranian response and retaliation by its allies, which could prolong the confrontation. The warnings give the prospect of post-election escalation a regional dimension that extends beyond an exchange of strikes between the United States and Iran. A UAE presidential adviser said military solutions "will not open quick exits" from the crisis, calling for the use of political tools.
Available closing data for Brent and West Texas Intermediate show an increase between Oct. 29 and Oct. 30: from $110.8 to $113.43 a barrel for Brent, and from $102 to $104.12 for West Texas Intermediate. These are the dated daily levels preceding Trump and Netanyahu’s call on Saturday and the Qatari meetings on Sunday. On the political track, the U.S. election on Nov. 3 remains a milestone Trump said he was considering when discussing military action afterward, without having made a final decision. Qatari mediators continue their efforts to resume direct talks, while Tehran ties any agreement to U.S. answers to its questions. Regional risks also remain linked to the possibility of an Iranian response, according to the warnings reported by the agency.