OPEC+ Holds December Output at September Levels as Hormuz Flows Fall to 4.9 Million Barrels
Key Facts
Seven OPEC+ countries kept their required September 2026 production levels unchanged for December, following a virtual meeting on November 1 to review market conditions and prospects. The organization said Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman decided to maintain those levels, as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain below pre-conflict levels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated flows through the strait at 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 21.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. The decision came as Reuters reported oil prices had fallen more than 1% in early Asian trading on November 2. The agency linked the price decline to ongoing Iranian-Qatari talks aimed at advancing an agreement to end the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
OPEC said the seven countries would continue to meet monthly to review market conditions, after ending in September the gradual unwinding of a voluntary supply cut of 1.65 million barrels per day. According to Reuters, another layer of cuts of nearly 2 million barrels per day remains in place for most OPEC+ members through the end of 2026. This puts the retention of September levels for December within a production policy that includes existing cuts alongside the end of the unwinding of the voluntary cut. Meanwhile, oil transit through Hormuz fell from 21.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 4.9 million in the second quarter of 2026. The gap highlights the scale of the supply disruption facing the market during the period, while the Energy Information Administration said disruptions to crude and product flows through the strait contributed to higher and more volatile crude prices through most of the second quarter of 2026.
Flows through Hormuz in the second quarter of 2026 included about 3.7 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate and 1.1 million of petroleum products, as well as 0.8 billion cubic feet per day of liquefied natural gas, according to Energy Information Administration data. Before the disruption, oil flows through the strait averaged 20.9 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025. The agency estimated that volume represented about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and a quarter of global seaborne oil trade. During the same period, global supplies of oil and other liquids reached about 104.4 million barrels per day, with 76% transported by sea. The Energy Information Administration said uncertainty over the strait's reopening contributed to sharp swings in oil prices in April and May 2026.
On mediation efforts, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iranian negotiators were in Qatar to discuss a proposal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the United States met several conditions. The Associated Press quoted him as saying, "The proposal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the United States meets several conditions." Araghchi stressed that "direct talks are not being held with the United States." The minister's comments came as Reuters reported Iranian-Qatari talks were continuing for a third consecutive day on November 2. The timeline Araghchi cited remains conditional on Washington meeting Iran's conditions, while oil prices fell in early Asian trading as talks continued.
Escalation concerns surrounded the three-day Manama Dialogue security forum in the Bahraini capital, which ran through November 1. Anwar Gargash, adviser to the UAE president, said "the rules of logic" pointed to a widening gap between the U.S. and Iranian positions, warning that failure to bridge it raised fears of the worst. He added that the UAE and the region were preparing for the possibility of escalation. The Associated Press quoted the International Institute for Strategic Studies as saying the UAE had faced more than 3,000 Iranian drone and ballistic missile attacks before the April 2026 ceasefire, targeting airports and military and oil facilities, while defenses intercepted most of them. These regional concerns emerged as oil traffic through Hormuz remains far below its average for the first half of 2025.
OPEC+'s next meeting is scheduled for November 29, 2026, the organization said, to review market conditions. A Rystad analyst said the ministerial meeting would be the key test, as it would set the group's production framework for 2027. The analyst linked the difficulty of the decision to uncertainty over the war, the pace of recovery in flows through Hormuz and the possibility that disrupted barrels would return. OPEC+ is also preparing to review members' production capacities during the fourth quarter before setting 2027 quota baselines, and Reuters expected the review to be completed by mid-November. The U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, close to the talks that Reuters said were aimed at advancing an agreement to end the war.