Intesa Values Revised Monte dei Paschi Offer at €31.4 Billion
Key Facts
Intesa Sanpaolo values its revised offer to acquire all ordinary shares of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena at €31.4 billion if fully accepted, based on closing prices on June 5, 2026. The group announced the voluntary tender and exchange offer on June 8, then amended the consideration in October. The valuation includes €27.6 billion for the share component and €3.8 billion in cash, based on Intesa’s reference share price of €5.682. The figure therefore remains an estimate conditional on full acceptance, not the value of a completed deal. The offer comes as regulatory procedures approach their next stages, with approval of the offer document and a competition review still pending.
Under the revised terms, shareholders receive €1.25 in cash and 1.6 new Intesa shares for each Monte dei Paschi share tendered. The group raised the cash component from €1.00 to €1.25 per share, while the share component remained at 1.6 new shares. Intesa valued the consideration at €10.341 for each Monte dei Paschi share, including a 15.3% premium to its price of €8.970 on June 5. These reference values reflect prices on that date, while the consideration received by shareholders consists of cash and shares. This means the announced total offer value is also linked to the market value of the share component when calculated.
Intesa presents the deal as an expansion that would increase the group’s scale and customer base, with more than 27 million customers expected. On a pro forma basis using 2025 figures, it estimates customer financial assets at about €1.7 trillion and targets about €2 trillion by 2029. The group also expects annual pretax synergies of about €2.9 billion once fully realized in 2029. According to Intesa, the estimate comprises €1.5 billion in cost reductions and €1.4 billion in revenue growth. These are figures and projections announced by the group as part of its deal rationale, and their realization depends on completion of the transaction and integration of the businesses.
The plan includes transferring about 635 Monte dei Paschi branches, along with its brand and most of the central structures needed for operations, to a standalone banking entity slated for sale to UniCredit. Reuters reported that Intesa had selected 445 of the branches on an irrevocable basis, while it could change its selection of another 190. The agency cited a person close to the matter as saying a decision by Italy’s competition authority was expected between mid-November and the end of the month. That remains a timeline forecast by a source cited by Reuters, not an official date announced by the authority. The branch arrangements tie the deal structure to the competition review, while it has yet to be decided whether the selections will change.
Intesa said on October 28 that all prior approvals required under sector rules had been granted. It added that approval of the offer document by Italy’s securities regulator, Consob, would come within ten days of the last sector approval; this does not mean the offer acceptance period will start on a specific date. Reuters reported on October 27 that Consob approval was expected in early November, followed by a review by the competition authority, whose decision the agency expected in the second half of the month. Reuters said the offer acceptance period could begin after Consob approval, before the competition decision. Before that period starts, Intesa said it would publish the offer document and the European follow-up prospectus.
The offer remains in place despite the outcome of Monte dei Paschi’s shareholder meeting on October 29, with Intesa saying the meeting did not approve the exchange offers for Banco BPM and Banca Generali or the proposed capital reduction. According to ANSA, more than 91% of the capital represented at the meeting voted against Banco BPM’s proposal, while 90.9% opposed Banca Generali’s offer. Shareholders also rejected a merger of Monte dei Paschi and Mediobanca. Intesa said it had waived the offer effectiveness condition tied to approval of that merger, so its rejection will not invalidate the offer. At a subsequent meeting, Intesa’s board was scheduled to review on November 3 the interim results through September 30 and an interim dividend distribution.