EL7.AI
Macro EconomyMedium•2 November 2026•
3 min read

Indonesia’s Trade Surplus Falls to $3.36 Billion as Export Growth Accelerates

Key Facts

1Indonesia’s trade surplus was $3.36 billion in September 2026.
2Indonesian imports reached $24.23 billion in September 2026.
3The trade surplus fell from $3.55 billion in August 2026 to $3.36 billion in September.
4Permata, BCA and Danamon forecasts put the surpluses at about $1.79 billion, $1.52 billion and $1 billion, respectively.

Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of $3.36 billion in September 2026, CNBC Indonesia reported, citing trade data, below August’s $3.55 billion surplus. In the same month, year-on-year export growth accelerated to its strongest level since April, according to Trading Economics. But the surplus data paint a different picture from exports alone, as the value of the surplus declined from the previous month. Imports totaled $24.23 billion in September, according to the same report. The stronger pace of export growth thus coincided with a monthly contraction in the trade surplus.

Before September’s figures were released, a survey forecast export growth of 6.45% year on year, compared with growth of 6.72% in August, according to Trading Economics. The report said the increase recorded in September was the strongest since April, putting the reading in the context of an improving pace of export growth after August. The comparison describes a change in the annual growth rate between the two months, while the trade surplus remains a separate indicator affected by the value of both exports and imports. The import reading of $24.23 billion shows one aspect of trade activity reflected in September’s surplus. The report did not provide a breakdown by goods or markets, so the reading is not attributed to a specific factor.

September’s surplus was higher than estimates from three economists cited by CNBC Indonesia, though their forecasts varied widely. An economist at Permata Bank forecast a surplus of about $1.79 billion, while an economist at BCA put it at $1.52 billion. An economist at Danamon forecast a surplus of about $1 billion. The actual result exceeded all three estimates, while remaining below August’s $3.55 billion surplus. The comparison shows that September’s reading topped the forecasts from the economists cited, but did not represent a month-on-month increase in the size of the surplus.

In explaining the backdrop to trade forecasts, a CNBC Indonesia report said higher oil prices raise the energy import bill and were among the factors behind expectations of a wider oil and gas trade deficit. This placed energy costs among the factors economists considered when estimating the trade balance, alongside the total value of imports. Indonesia’s imports were $24.23 billion in September, while the trade surplus was $3.36 billion. The comparison with August remains defined by the published figures: a surplus of $3.55 billion in the previous month versus $3.36 billion in September. The report did not specify how much oil prices contributed to the value of imports or the surplus.