Goldman Sachs Raises Brent Forecast to $105 in December, Sees $88 in 2027
Key Facts
Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 Brent crude forecast to $105 a barrel from $90, and lifted its average price forecast for 2027 to $88, up 10% from its previous estimate. Bloomberg, via Moneycontrol, reported that the bank linked the revision to rising risks of declining oil supply. Its analysts said that “significant supply downside risks are likely to keep a significant risk premium in the near term.” The estimate puts the risk premium at the center of the price outlook, although the bank did not describe the assumed disruption in its calculations as an actual event. The annual forecast increase comes alongside a higher December estimate, reflecting continued supply concerns over both periods.
In its base-case scenario for 2027, Goldman included a hypothetical allowance for a global supply outage of 1 million barrels a day. The allowance reflects the difficulty of timing potential disruptions and determining where they might occur, according to the report; it does not mean the bank expects an ongoing or permanent outage of that size. The assumption makes next year’s forecasts more sensitive to supply risks, even as Brent is averaged at $88 a barrel. The report said markets expect an escalation after the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026, potentially followed by weaker Middle East supply. These risks remain a factor in oil pricing in the bank’s assessment, alongside other geopolitical developments cited by its analysts.
Factors that could push prices higher include intensified attacks on shipping and damage to infrastructure, as well as risks from the Russia-Ukraine war. Goldman analysts said “intensified attacks on shipping and damage to infrastructure” were among the factors that could lead to further price gains. Mentioning these factors means the bank’s estimate includes risks related to the security of transportation and production, not only supply levels. The bank raised its 2027 forecast as the report noted that Middle East oil supplies had returned to levels close to those before the war. This places the current supply improvement alongside concerns about future disruptions, without making the hypothetical allowance an actual outage.
In the market, Brent rose 14% during October 2026 and reached a six-month high, according to the report. EL7 data showed Brent closing at $113.43 a barrel on October 30, compared with $110.8 on October 29. West Texas Intermediate closed at $104.12 a barrel on October 30, against $102 the previous day. In trading on Monday, November 2, the most active contracts fell after having traded near $110 a barrel. These levels show market movements at the end of October and beginning of November, while Goldman’s December forecast remains a separate forward-looking estimate from recorded closing prices.
Goldman’s forecasts are part of a wave of upward revisions by other institutions. Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for dated Brent, a key physical price, to $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, while ANZ Group raised its year-end Brent futures forecast to the same level. The U.S. Energy Information Administration also estimated in its October forecast that the average spot price of Brent would reach $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, up $14 from the previous month’s forecast. The agency had said the average spot price was $114 in September, up $23 from August, and that the daily price reached $131 on September 15 after attacks on oil infrastructure. These estimates provide context for the fourth-quarter price, but differ in measure and period from Goldman’s annual average for 2027.
The International Energy Agency, meanwhile, said global oil demand was expected to fall 2.5 million barrels a day year over year in the fourth quarter of 2026 and average 2.6 million barrels a day lower over the year. The agency also reported that globally observed oil inventories at the end of September were 509 million barrels below their level at the end of February. It said Brent futures had risen 13% since the start of September to about $107 a barrel, while North Sea Dated crude had climbed 43% to $134. These indicators show a divergence between weak demand forecasts, falling inventories and rising crude prices, all part of the market backdrop to Goldman’s estimate. The EIA forecast that the Brent spot price would fall to an average of $74 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2027 as production recovers and inventories are rebuilt.
Seven OPEC+ countries are due to review market conditions at their next meeting on November 29, 2026, after deciding on November 1 to keep December output at the required production levels for September. The production decision comes ahead of the next meeting, while price forecasts remain tied to the supply risks cited by Goldman and the demand trajectory described by the International Energy Agency. The EIA also set November 10, 2026, as the release date for its next monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook. These dates provide near-term milestones for market estimates and production decisions. Goldman’s 2027 forecast assumes the continued inclusion of a supply-disruption allowance in its base case, not that such a disruption will necessarily occur.