EL7.AI
CommoditiesMedium•2 November 2026•
4 min read

Observed Global Oil Inventories Fall 509 Million Barrels Through September

Key Facts

1Observed global oil inventories fell 509 million barrels through the end of September 2026 compared with the end of February.
2Reuters estimated that countries had withdrawn about 1 billion barrels from reserves since the war began, including through a record release led by the International Energy Agency.
3Oil flows through Hormuz fell from 21.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 4.9 million in the second quarter of 2026.
4The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for average Brent prices in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $105 a barrel, up $14 from the previous month’s forecast.
5The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast average Brent prices of $74 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2027 as inventories build.

Observed global oil inventories fell by 509 million barrels from end-February levels through the end of September 2026, according to the International Energy Agency’s October Oil Market Report. That represents a cumulative decline of 2.4 million barrels per day over the period, the report said. This measure differs from the estimate that about 1 billion barrels were drawn from reserves, a figure Reuters cited in a report published on July 6, saying countries around the world were likely to have withdrawn that amount since the war began. Reuters’ estimate includes a record release of reserves led by the International Energy Agency, while the agency’s figure measures the decline in observed inventories. The distinction puts the 1 billion-barrel figure in the context of reserve withdrawals, rather than as a like-for-like measure of changes in observed inventories.

Observed global inventories fell by a further 95 million barrels in August, bringing cumulative withdrawals since February to 507 million barrels, or 2.8 million barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency’s September report. The October report then showed a decline of 509 million barrels through the end of the following month. The two figures provide consecutive measurements of observed inventories, with each report covering a different period. The comparison remains useful for understanding the continued decline from February through the end of September. The data also place the reserve draw reported by Reuters alongside movements in observed inventories, while each remains a separate measure.

The decline in inventories coincided with a sharp drop in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Flows averaged 21.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, before falling to 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data. The comparison shows the reduction in volumes passing through the strait between the two periods, without implying that flows stopped entirely. The trajectory through Hormuz provides context for supply movements during the period of inventory drawdowns. These figures show the scale of the change in flows compared with their level at the end of 2025.

Pressure extended to the oil market, with Brent futures up 13% since the start of September to about $107 a barrel at the time the International Energy Agency prepared its October report. The U.S. Energy Information Administration also raised its forecast for average Brent prices in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $105 a barrel, up $14 from the previous month’s forecast. The monthly forecast reflects a clear upward revision in the agency’s price estimate for the period. In the fuel market, the low-sulfur diesel contract at the Port of New York settled at $4.912 a gallon on October 26, then at $4.6761 on October 30, according to EL7 data. These are settlements for the futures contract on two specific dates, not consumer or retail prices.

By contrast, member countries of the International Energy Agency still hold an estimated 1.1 billion barrels of public emergency stocks, including more than 200 million barrels of diesel, according to the agency’s statement on its October 7, 2026 meeting. These volumes provide a picture of the reserves members have left during the inventory drawdown period. The presence of emergency diesel stocks stands out in particular amid falling flows through Hormuz and movements in the diesel futures contract during the final week of October. The agency said emergency stocks include the stated volume of oil and diesel. That reserve level remains distinct from the measure of observed global oil inventories in the market report.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast that global oil inventories would fall by an average of 1.9 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026, then by 0.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. The estimate for the final quarter represents continued drawdowns, but at a lower daily rate than the estimate for the third quarter. Further out, the agency forecast that most of the region’s output would return to pre-conflict levels by the end of the second quarter of 2027. It also forecast that average Brent prices would fall to $74 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2027 as inventories build during the year. This projected path links the recovery in production, the rebuilding of inventories and lower prices at the end of 2027.