Oil Supply Losses Exceed 1 Billion Barrels Amid Calls to Reform Global Energy Security
Key Facts
Cumulative oil supply losses exceeded 1 billion barrels through May 12, with a weekly loss of 100 million barrels while the Strait of Hormuz was closed, according to a report published by The National on that date. The figures come amid Sultan Al Jaber's call to reform global energy security, a call cited in the headline of a newspaper report on November 2 whose text was unavailable to verify its details or link the 1 billion figure to Al Jaber's remarks. Al Jaber had warned in May that supply recovery would take time, saying that reaching 80% of prewar levels could take at least four months after the conflict ends. He added that a full return of flows may not occur before the first or second quarter of 2027. These estimates put the security of export routes and spare energy capacity at the center of debate over the market's ability to recover.
Al Jaber said on May 20 that global spare production capacity should approach 5 million barrels a day, compared with about 3 million barrels a day at the time. The gap, based on the figures he cited, highlights the size of the cushion he said was needed to strengthen the market's ability to withstand supply disruptions. In an earlier report on May 12, The National said weekly losses could reach 100 million barrels as long as the strait remained closed. That estimate suggests that continued disruption was adding substantial losses to the cumulative total. It could not be verified whether the 1 billion figure in the November 2 report was based on a calculation for the same period or on an update to these figures.
The pressure extended to liquefied natural gas markets. A September 14 report by The National said about 17% of Qatar's export capacity was offline after two of its 14 trains were damaged, removing 12.8 million tonnes a year from the market. The report said missing supplies from Qatar and the UAE since the start of the year, compared with the same period in 2025, totaled 36 million tonnes. New supplies from the United States and Canada offset about 20 million tonnes of that shortfall. The figures show the scale of supply redistribution among gas suppliers, while some of the lost volumes remained uncompensated in the report's comparison. The report does not confirm the figure in the first draft concerning the withdrawal of 600 billion cubic feet of gas, nor does it attribute that figure to Al Jaber.
A May report by The National linked supply disruption to its effects on prices, noting that Brent was near $100 a barrel, up about 40% from its prewar levels. During the same period, airfares rose 20%, fuel costs 30% and fertilizer prices 50%, according to the report. These moves reflect the transmission of energy costs to transportation and agricultural production inputs, alongside the rise in crude prices. The report also quoted Amin Nasser as saying that rebalancing the energy market would take months even if the Strait of Hormuz were opened immediately. He said a return to normal could extend into 2027 if the closure continued beyond mid-June.
Against the backdrop of supply recovery, a September report forecast that Qatar's Pearl gas-to-liquids plant would return to operation near the end of the first quarter of 2027, after its two trains were hit by a missile during the conflict. Executives at a forum in London also said the oil market disruption could last beyond the following year, and that replenishing inventories could take years while meeting global demand. Al Jaber described energy security in March as "the difference between keeping the lights on or turning them off," calling on industry leaders to work together to build resilience in the energy system. The ADIPEC Conference and Exhibition is scheduled to take place in Abu Dhabi from November 2 to 5, with an opening address by Al Jaber on its program. The conference timing provides an opportunity to follow the discussion on supply security, but its date alone does not establish the content of his speech or details of any new measures.