China’s Private Manufacturing Index Beats Forecasts at 52.0 Despite Slower Growth
Key Facts
China’s RatingDog general manufacturing index slipped to 52.0 in October from 52.1 in September, but beat the Reuters poll forecast of 51.6, Reuters reported. The index remained above the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction, although its overall reading pointed to a slight slowdown in factory activity growth. By contrast, factory output rose at its fastest pace in six months, according to the same survey. The divergence between output and the headline index shows production continuing to rise alongside a cooling in some components of demand. The private reading came as the official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell below the expansion threshold.
The new orders index in the RatingDog survey eased to 53.3 in October from 53.4 in September, while export orders growth slowed to a three-month low, Reuters reported. The new orders index remained above the 50 threshold but fell from the previous month. In the official survey, the new export orders index fell to 48.7 from 50.0 in September, returning to contraction territory. Both readings show external demand weakening more clearly than the overall activity level captured by the private survey’s orders index. This divergence makes it more important to watch whether rapid output growth will continue as export orders slow.
Output prices in the RatingDog survey fell after rising in September, and the report said competition had prompted companies to cut prices to support sales, Reuters reported. Export prices also fell for the first time since November 2025. In the official survey data, both input prices and selling prices declined in October, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. The indicators are consistent with competitive price pressures as official export orders fell below the expansion threshold. The private survey source did not link this reading to higher industrial profits or stable commodity prices.
Employment at companies covered by the RatingDog survey rose for a second consecutive month, though only slightly, while backlogs increased for a ninth month, Reuters reported. Continued growth in backlogs points to orders remaining in progress at companies alongside a modest increase in hiring. On the official side, China’s statistics bureau attributed the manufacturing index’s decline to some demand being brought forward ahead of the Golden Week holiday and to a more complex international environment. The official production and new orders indexes fell to 49.8 and 49.4, respectively, in October. The bureau said, "Some demand was brought forward ahead of the National Day holiday, alongside a more complex and changing international environment."
Official performance varied by company size and sector. The purchasing managers’ index for large companies remained in expansion territory at 50.2, while medium-sized companies posted 48.4 and small companies 47.5, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. The high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing indexes remained above the expansion threshold at 51.3 and 50.6, respectively. In actual activity, value added at major industrial enterprises grew 5.3% year over year in the first three quarters of 2026, while manufacturing value rose 5.7%. Over the same period, gross domestic product rose 4.6%, after growing 4.5% in the third quarter versus 4.3% in the second quarter, while retail sales of consumer goods increased just 1.1%.
Across the broader economy, the official non-manufacturing business activity index stood at 49.7 in October, as did the composite output index; all three readings fell from September, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The official decline thus extended beyond manufacturing, while the private RatingDog manufacturing survey remained above 50. The RatingDog China services index for October is due on November 4, 2026. The official release schedule also set November 9 at 9:30 local time for the publication of October consumer price and producer price data. Trade is expected to be among the topics at an anticipated meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in mid-November on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen, according to the Associated Press.