Brent Falls 3% to $110 as Iran-Qatar Talks Continue for Third Day
Key Facts
Brent futures fell $3.43, or 3%, to $110 a barrel at 0712 GMT on Nov. 2, while U.S. crude fell 3.4% to $100.62, Reuters reported. The decline came as Iranian and Qatari officials held talks for a third consecutive day, seeking an agreement to end the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The diplomatic efforts raised hopes of progress, alongside the absence of any tangible military escalation over the weekend. Tim Waterer, an analyst at KCM Trade, said these factors had "taken some of the immediate heat off prices for now." The decline followed gains in the previous week, while escalation risks remained in the market background.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said the purpose of the talks was to "continue consultations with Qatari mediators," describing them as ongoing and making progress. He added that Tehran was ready for defense and diplomacy, and said Iranian negotiators were in Qatar to discuss a proposal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the United States met several conditions. Araqchi said there were no direct talks with Washington. The proposal puts reopening the strait within broader efforts to end the war, but does not mean an agreement or ceasefire has been reached. The strait remains central to oil supply developments as negotiations and pressures related to the conflict continue.
Brent closed October at its highest level in six months, after concerns supported prices over the possibility of an escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict following the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 3. An analyst at DBS said the market had already priced in the possibility of U.S.-Israeli escalation after the election. The analyst added that the market might not be surprised if attacks on Iran resumed over the following two weeks. In the analyst's view, price responses to news of major strikes could remain limited near $120 a barrel before returning to previous levels. This reflects the continued presence of escalation risks in the market despite lower prices in early Monday trading.
EL7 Brent closing data show the contract fell from $113.43 on Oct. 30 to $110.36 on Nov. 2. These figures represent daily closes, while Reuters reported an intraday price of $110 at 0712 GMT; readings therefore differ according to the measurement time. Against the broader market backdrop, the International Energy Agency said Brent futures had risen 13% since the start of September to about $107 a barrel when it prepared its report in October. The agency warned that intensifying attacks on energy infrastructure and tanker traffic threatened the recovery in supply. It also forecast that oil markets would remain in deficit through the end of the year, with possible continued constraints on middle distillate supplies through 2027.
International Energy Agency data show crude exports from Gulf producers rose by 4.4 million barrels a day to 13.9 million in September compared with the previous month. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz increased by 3.7 million barrels a day to 10.9 million, with ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman contributing. In October, Saudi Arabia increased its crude exports compared with September despite attacks on its energy infrastructure by Iran-aligned Houthis, according to two of three ship-tracking companies cited by a Reuters report. This comes as war-related export disruptions remain a factor in supply forecasts. These movements put the security of oil flows through the Gulf and the strait among the factors shaping the landscape monitored by markets.
In a separate supply decision, the seven countries participating in the OPEC+ decision kept required December 2026 production at September 2026 levels and set Nov. 29 for their next meeting to review the market. Reuters reported that the alliance left December targets unchanged and that no further production policy adjustments would take place before next year amid continued war-related disruptions to exports linked to Iran. The market is watching the next meeting as Iran-Qatar talks and escalation risks remain part of the oil-trading context. The OPEC+ decision keeps December production at the benchmark levels set in the decision, with no immediate adjustment to targets. The seven countries are scheduled to meet on Nov. 29.