Atlanta Fed’s Estimate for U.S. Fourth-Quarter Growth Rises to 3.7%
Key Facts
On November 2, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta raised its estimate for U.S. real gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter to 3.7% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, from 3.2% on October 29. The change represents an increase of 0.5 percentage points in a matter of days, as the model was updated based on available economic data. The bank said, "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2026 is 3.7% on November 2, up from 3.2% on October 29." The figure is a nowcast for the current quarter, not an official estimate issued by the Atlanta Fed. The update comes as investors monitor whether U.S. economic growth will persist in the final months of the year.
The bank’s commentary attributed the revision to releases on the morning of November 2 from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, saying the adjustment appeared in two components of domestic activity. Its estimate for real personal consumption growth in the fourth quarter rose to 2.9% from 2.7%. Its estimate for real private domestic gross investment growth also climbed, to 11.1% from 9.0%. The consumption and investment estimates thus moved higher in the same update, alongside the increase in the overall GDP reading. The bank said the estimates are for the fourth quarter and changed after the new data were released that morning.
Third-quarter results provide a recent benchmark for the current pace of growth: real gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, after 2.2% in the second quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said increases in investment, consumer spending and government spending contributed to third-quarter growth. A decline in exports offset some of the effect of those increases, the bureau said. GDPNow’s final estimate for the third quarter was 3.3%, 0.1 percentage points below the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ initial estimate of 3.4%. The comparison highlights a limited difference between the model’s reading and the official initial estimate for the previous quarter, while the fourth-quarter figure remains subject to revision as new data arrive.
In equities, the S&P 500 rose 0.6% during trading on November 2, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.7% at 11:45 a.m. Eastern time. The Associated Press said stocks were recovering some of the previous week’s losses and that the S&P 500 was coming off its third consecutive weekly decline. The Dow Jones was up 539 points at the time of the report. These moves offer a snapshot of market performance that morning, but do not on their own establish the effect of the GDPNow update on prices. The gains came in a session that coincided with the release of data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, which the Atlanta Fed cited as relevant to its updated estimates.
Attention now turns to U.S. labor-market data scheduled for November 3 and 6. The Bureau of Labor Statistics calendar lists the September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for release on November 3 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time. The October Employment Situation report is due on November 6 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The Atlanta Fed is scheduled to publish its next GDPNow update on Wednesday, November 4, providing a new reading after additional data are released. The Bureau of Economic Analysis has also set November 25 as the date for publication of its second estimate of third-quarter GDP growth.