Arbonia expects 2026 revenue of 625 million francs as German market slows
Key Facts
Arbonia lowered its forecast for revenue in fiscal 2026 to around 625 million Swiss francs, equivalent to the previous year’s level, according to a company statement published on November 2. The revision reflects a slow return to normal in its German business, after the market weakened further from midyear. The company said demand in new construction and renovation had declined, alongside higher materials and shipping costs. The lower forecast covered revenue and EBITDA, but the statement did not specify previous numerical targets for comparison. This puts performance in the German business at the forefront of the reasons for the revision, despite the company’s expectation that its operations in other European markets will improve.
Comparison with last year’s results highlights the scale of the change in expectations: Arbonia generated revenue of 624.5 million francs in 2025, up 12.3% from 556.3 million in 2024. The new forecast puts revenue roughly back at the 2025 level after that annual growth. Adjusted EBITDA was 56.5 million francs in 2025, compared with 41.7 million in the previous year. These figures provide the comparison for the 2026 update, but do not mean the company has issued a new EBITDA figure for the current year. It said it had lowered its forecast for the metric, without publishing a target value in the available information.
By contrast, Arbonia expects EBITDA at companies outside Garant to rise by more than 15% compared with the previous year. The company statement described developments in the rest of the European markets as positive, in contrast with the slowdown in German business. This divergence indicates that the revision to consolidated revenue does not reflect a uniform trend across all of the company’s businesses and regions. However, the statement provided no detailed revenue figures for those markets or their contribution to results. It also did not specify the size of the impact the company attributes to weaker demand and higher materials and shipping costs.
Arbonia’s revision comes as the German economy recorded modest quarter-on-quarter growth in the third quarter of 2026. Gross domestic product grew 0.2% from the second quarter, according to the preliminary reading from Germany’s Federal Statistical Office. Year on year, GDP rose 1.3% after price adjustment, and 1.2% after adjustment for prices and calendar effects. The office said final consumption expenditure increased slightly from the previous quarter. By contrast, preliminary data indicated a decline in capital formation and a marked slowdown in export momentum, while Arbonia’s update cites weak demand in its German business and materials and shipping costs.