Brent Falls 3.2% to $109.75 as Conditional Proposal Could Reopen Hormuz Within Two Days
Key Facts
Brent crude fell 3.2% to $109.75 a barrel by 0407 GMT on Monday, November 2, while West Texas Intermediate fell 3.3% to $100.69, as Iranian-Qatari talks continued for a third day. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, attributed the decline to a technical correction after the previous week's gains. He said hopes for diplomatic progress, alongside the absence of a major military escalation over the weekend, eased immediate pressure on prices. That comes as the prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains tied to the United States' response to Iranian conditions. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said the outcome of the process depends on Washington's response to
Iranian negotiators are in Qatar to discuss a proposal that could allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen within two days if the United States meets several conditions, Araqchi said. But he stressed that there are no direct contacts between Tehran and Washington. He said Iran is ready for defense and diplomacy, depending on the
The talks coincide with reports of risks to shipping in the Gulf. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said four oil tankers struck mines and caught fire on Friday, October 30, including one carrying more than 2 million barrels. The Associated Press could not verify the Iranian account. In a separate incident, Oman said it evacuated 25 crew members from a Panama-flagged tanker that came under attack and caught fire near Musandam Governorate, 1.6 nautical miles off the coast. It was unclear whether the incident was related to the events described by Iran. Qatar's Nakilat said the vessel Al Mayada was hit by unidentified objects in the Arabian Gulf on Friday night; none of its crew were injured, there was no environmental impact, and the vessel remained operational.
Price levels reflect the market's sensitivity to supply risks. EL7 data showed Brent closed at $113.43 a barrel on October 30, compared with $110.8 the previous day. WTI closed at $104.12, against $102 on October 29. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said the average spot price of Brent was $114 a barrel in September, up $23 from August, after attacks on oil infrastructure and tankers in the region intensified. The agency added that risks facing tankers raised shipping costs and the risk premium in oil prices. It also said the disruption of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline pushed the daily spot price to $131 a barrel on September 15.
Brent ended October at its highest level in six months, amid concerns that the U.S.-Iran conflict could flare up again after the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for Tuesday, November 3. Waterer warned that escalating rhetoric over Iran could push Brent toward $120 a barrel after the election. The EIA said it expects an average of $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, up $14 from its forecast the previous month. The agency linked continued short-term volatility to the conflict's effects on crude flows and prices. The agency is scheduled to release its next Short-Term Energy Outlook on November 10.
In a separate development affecting supply, the seven OPEC+ participating countries decided to maintain for December 2026 the required production level for September 2026, according to the organization's statement issued on November 1. OPEC said the countries will continue to meet monthly to review market conditions. The statement set the next meeting for November 29, 2026. The decision sets out the announced production framework for December, while market conditions will continue to be monitored at the next monthly meeting. Talks over Hormuz and shipping risks remain among the key developments shaping expectations for oil flows in the region.