EL7.AI
Macro EconomyMediumUpdated×2•Originally published 2 November 2026•Updated 2 November 2026•
4 min read

Eurozone Activity Index Falls to 51.9 in October as Price Pressures Rise

Key Facts

1The flash Composite Output Index stood at 51.9 points in October, versus 53.1 points in September, remaining above the 50-point no-change level.
2The October reading was consistent with quarterly growth at a pace of 0.3%, versus 0.4% in September.
3The flash manufacturing PMI fell to 52.4 points from 52.9 points, while the final reading rose to 52.7 points.
4Selling prices rose in October by one of the largest amounts since early 2023, while expected inflation remained above the European Central Bank’s 2% target.
5The seasonally adjusted flash estimate of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for October is due on 4 November 2026 at 15:00.

S&P Global’s flash Eurozone Composite Output Index fell to 51.9 points in October, from 53.1 points in September, marking a fourth consecutive month of rising activity, according to the company’s data. A reading above 50 points means activity remains in growth territory, although expansion was slower than in the previous month. The reading comes as the pace of demand eases and price pressures increase, weakening growth momentum and keeping inflation a key focus for monetary policymakers. S&P Global estimated that the reading was consistent with quarterly GDP growth of 0.3% in October, compared with a pace of 0.4% in September. The data therefore combined continued expansion with a slower pace, rather than signaling a broad contraction in activity.

In manufacturing, the flash Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 52.4 points in October from 52.9 points in September, while the manufacturing output index declined to 52.4 points from 53.6 points. The two indexes measure different aspects of the sector; the output reading is not the same as the Purchasing Managers’ Index reading. The final manufacturing PMI was then revised up to 52.7 points, compared with the flash estimate of 52.4 points, but remained below September’s 52.9 points. This suggests the final estimate softened some of the initial picture of slowing, without changing the month-on-month direction. The readings remain above 50 points, consistent with continued expansion in the sector, but at a weaker pace than in September.

On activity components, S&P Global said new order flows slowed to marginal growth, while hiring came close to stalling. The company’s chief economist said, "Employment came close to stagnating as new order flows slowed to marginal demand growth." The simultaneous weakness in demand and slowdown in hiring means companies are expanding activity more cautiously, while activity indicators remain above the contraction threshold. The company also said that declining activity in France weighed on regional growth. It linked weakness in French activity to strikes, civil unrest and political instability, alongside a PMI signal that the French economy was slipping into contraction.

By contrast, cost pressures on companies widened as energy prices rose. S&P Global said input costs rose again, with the increase accelerating in manufacturing on the back of higher energy prices. It added that companies raised selling prices to protect margins, pointing to some input-cost increases being passed through to prices paid by businesses and customers. The increase in selling prices in October was among the largest since early 2023, according to the company. S&P Global said price indicators were consistent with consumer price inflation remaining elevated and above the European Central Bank’s 2% target in the coming months.

The indicators come as the European Central Bank kept its key interest rates unchanged at its October meeting. The bank said persistently higher energy prices increase inflation risks while also weighing on the growth outlook. The deposit facility rate stood at 2.50%, the main refinancing rate at 2.65%, and the marginal lending facility rate at 2.90%. The Governing Council said future decisions would be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook, risks, and incoming economic and financial data. It added that it "is not pre-committing to a particular rate path," leaving future decisions dependent on developments in the data and risks.

Markets are awaiting publication of the seasonally adjusted flash estimate of the Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for October on 4 November 2026 at 15:00, according to the European Central Bank’s calendar. The final reading is scheduled for publication on 18 November at 12:00. The flash estimate will provide a later measure of the price pressures companies reported in the October survey. The release is due as the bank weighs energy-related upside inflation risks against the risk of slower growth. The upcoming price reading remains among the data the bank said would inform its assessment of subsequent interest-rate decisions.