Washington Warns Allies Iran Strikes Could Resume, Threats Target Energy Facilities
Key Facts
U.S. officials have told several Middle Eastern countries and regional allies to prepare for the possibility of renewed military action against Iran after the U.S. midterm elections, the Associated Press reported. Two diplomats briefed on the warnings said President Donald Trump had not made a final decision on carrying out new strikes. The warning means allies face the prospect of renewed military operations, along with the risk of an Iranian response that could reach them. The agency quoted U.S. officials as saying a potential round of military action could last several days. Allies were also asked to take precautions in case Iran targets energy facilities and critical infrastructure in response.
The warning comes against a record of attacks on U.S. sites in the region. More than 115 drone or missile strikes claimed by Iran or Iran-backed groups had damaged or destroyed facilities at 26 U.S. military bases and sites through August, according to an analysis published by the agency. An analysis of satellite images found that the strikes first targeted early-warning systems before expanding to aircraft and buildings. The agency estimated that equipment damage during the war amounted to billions of dollars through October. Between 1 April and 30 June, strikes damaged or destroyed hundreds of buildings and facilities at U.S. bases, according to the analysis.
Two regional officials said the United States had moved many of its assets out of the Gulf, including aircraft, air defense systems, communications and other equipment used to operate bases, the Associated Press reported. The move places the U.S. military deployment in the context of preparations for a possible renewed confrontation, while no final decision has been made on strikes. On the Iranian side, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei threatened an immediate response to any U.S. or Israeli threat, saying the response would have no geographical limits, according to the agency, which cited Iran’s official news agency. During a meeting with military commanders, Khamenei also called for an updated list of potential U.S. and Israeli targets. The threat adds a regional dimension to the warnings issued to allies.
In the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed that a supertanker carrying more than 2 million barrels of oil hit a sea mine and caught fire while using an unauthorized route, the Associated Press reported; the agency could not verify the account. In a separate incident, Oman said it had evacuated 25 crew members from a Panama-flagged tanker after it came under attack and caught fire 1.6 nautical miles off the coast of Musandam Governorate. It was unclear whether the incident announced by Oman was connected to the Revolutionary Guard’s claim. The differing accounts highlight the risks facing shipping in the strait as negotiations over reopening it continue. The agency also said that Iran-backed Houthi forces had attacked oil facilities and airports in Saudi Arabia, and that a Riyadh-led coalition had responded with deadly attacks on areas controlled by the Houthis in Yemen.
On the diplomatic front, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a new proposal reached with mediators could shorten the time needed to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz to two days, and that Iranian diplomats were in Qatar for discussions, the Associated Press reported. But he said Iran did not plan to meet with U.S. officials and described Washington’s recent efforts toward a “broader dialogue” as a positive step. He added that whether negotiations would be direct or indirect would be determined “once Washington accepts Iran’s terms.” The previous month, Araghchi had proposed reopening the passage within a week in exchange for the United States lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, releasing frozen assets and waiving sanctions on oil sales, but the proposal was rejected. The published report did not specify the terms of the new proposal.
The negotiations also concern arrangements for passage through the strait. Iranian national security official Mohsen Rezaei said Iran and Oman should agree on the route for ships when the strait reopens, and that passage would be “under Iranian management.” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, by contrast, said vital trade routes, including the straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, must remain safe and open to commerce. On a broader regional level, the four countries taking part in the Tehran talks agreed to continue discussing expanded cooperation, particularly on regional peace and security, without announcing a date or location for the next meeting. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that renewed attacks on Iran would destabilize the region and harm countries not involved in the conflict.
Trump said at a campaign rally in Lubbock, Texas, that a decisive end to the conflict, now in its 8th month, could come “in about two weeks,” according to an Associated Press report published on 28 October. In its latest estimate to Congress, the Pentagon put the cost of the war to U.S. taxpayers at 47.1 billion dollars. In energy markets, Brent crude and the U.S. benchmark crude topped 100 dollars a barrel on the Friday before the agency’s report published on 31 October. The highest price for the most actively traded Brent contract since the war began came close to 120 dollars in March. These prices provide context for the war’s impact on energy markets, as the resumption of strikes and the outcome of Hormuz negotiations remain uncertain.