EL7.AI
Macro EconomyMedium•1 November 2026•
3 min read

Saudi GDP Contracts 3.8% in Q3, Less Than Forecast Decline

Key Facts

1Saudi real GDP contracted 3.8% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, according to the preliminary reading.
2The forecast for third-quarter 2026 GDP was a 5.8% contraction, compared with a previous reading of a 4.7% contraction.
3Real GDP grew 4.8% in the third quarter of 2025.
4The calendar listed Riyad Bank’s Purchasing Managers’ Index for October on November 3, 2026.

Saudi real gross domestic product contracted 3.8% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, according to the preliminary reading listed in the Economic Trading Calendar on Sunday, November 1. The contraction was less severe than the calendar’s 5.8% forecast and eased from the previous reading of a 4.7% contraction. The annual comparison puts the result against growth of 4.8% in the third quarter of 2025, according to the General Authority for Statistics’ report on that quarter. The preliminary reading is the first available aggregate indicator in this data of economic performance during the quarter that ended. The available evidence does not include a documented breakdown of the contributions of oil and non-oil activities to the third-quarter 2026 result.

The Saudi economy recorded real annual growth of 4.8% in the third quarter of 2025, according to the General Authority for Statistics, the comparable quarter against which the 2026 reading is measured. The authority’s report said non-oil activities added 2.4 percentage points to GDP growth in that quarter, while oil activities added 2.0 percentage points. These figures provide context for comparison with last year’s base, but describe 2025 performance and do not identify the sources of the contraction recorded in the third quarter of 2026. In the first quarter of 2026, real GDP grew 3.0% year on year, with oil and non-oil activities each expanding 2.9%, according to the Saudi Press Agency, citing the authority. These readings highlight differences in the growth path across quarters, but on their own do not explain the shift in the third quarter.

The International Monetary Fund had projected in its July baseline that Saudi real GDP would grow 1.7% in 2026 and 5.5% in 2027. It also forecast non-oil GDP growth to slow to 2.6% in 2026 before rising to 4.5% in 2027. The fund said the regional war disrupted trade, including oil exports, and affected non-oil activity and confidence. It said higher oil prices more than offset losses in production volumes, generating gains in oil revenues. These projections and assessments date to the July report and do not directly explain the preliminary third-quarter reading published in November.

The economic calendar’s focus turns to the Riyad Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index for October, listed for November 3, as an upcoming reading on activity. The calendar also lists September industrial production data for November 10. These dates follow the release of the preliminary GDP reading, while the evidence provides no actual figures for either indicator or market reaction to the GDP data. The release of the two indicators will be the next calendar milestones for tracking domestic activity after the third-quarter contraction.