7 OPEC+ Countries Agree in Principle to Keep December Output Targets Unchanged

Key Facts

Seven OPEC+ countries have agreed in principle to keep output targets unchanged in December, according to a source familiar with the matter cited by Reuters. The agreement will be put to Sunday's meeting of the seven countries, meaning the targets' status quo remains subject to discussion. The proposal concerns output targets and does not specify the actual production the countries will deliver. It follows an earlier decision that kept November output at the September 2026 level. The countries are scheduled to review market conditions at their next meeting.

The group comprises Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, according to an OPEC statement. The organization said the countries had previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023. At their October 4 meeting, the seven countries decided to keep the required output level for November at the September 2026 level. This shows that the proposed December decision follows the maintenance of November's reference level. The preliminary December agreement is not described as an extension of a specific cut or a delay to an increase scheduled for that month.

At their previous meeting, the seven countries kept required November output at the September 2026 level, according to OPEC. The organization set November 1 for the next meeting to review market conditions. It said the countries would continue to hold monthly meetings for that purpose. In June, OPEC confirmed that the total production level agreed at the 38th ministerial meeting would remain in place through December 31, 2026. Discussion of December targets comes at the end of the period set by that decision for the agreed total production level.

The International Energy Agency estimates that global oil demand will fall by an average of 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026. The agency also expects year-on-year demand to decline by 2.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. On the supply side, global supply rose to 102.3 million barrels per day in September, an increase of 2.5 million barrels per day from the previous month. The agency estimated that OPEC+ supply rose by 2.1 million barrels per day in the same month, led by Saudi Arabia. Observed global oil inventories also fell by 10 million barrels in September, with onshore inventories down 113 million barrels.

In its market monitoring, OPEC's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee said attacks on energy infrastructure and disruption to international shipping routes increase market volatility and affect the availability of supplies. The committee's statement said, "Any acts that undermine the security of energy supplies, whether through attacks on infrastructure or disruption to international shipping routes, increase market volatility." On October 23, Brent crude rose 3.1% to $116.72 a barrel, its highest level since June 2022, according to the Associated Press. The agency said the price had risen from less than $97 at the start of October. In a separate estimate, the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for the average spot price of Brent in the fourth quarter to $105 a barrel, up $14 from its forecast the previous month.

Among the upcoming dates set by OPEC is the 42nd OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting on November 29, 2026. The organization also said that assessments of countries' maximum sustainable production capacity will be used as a reference for 2027 production baselines. This comes alongside the preliminary proposal on December targets, which the seven countries will discuss at Sunday's meeting. On the demand side, the International Energy Agency expects a partial recovery of 2 million barrels per day in 2027. Even so, the agency estimates that global oil consumption that year will remain 0.6% below its 2025 level.