Macau Gaming Revenue Falls 10% in October Despite Visitor Rebound

Key Facts

Gross gaming revenue in Macau fell 10% year over year in October, the fifth consecutive month of decline, according to data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau of Macau. The result followed year-over-year revenue declines in each of the previous four months, Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai said before the monthly data were released. The government had kept its 2026 industry revenue forecast at 236 billion patacas despite the string of declines. Hou Fai said the government was monitoring whether the increase in visitor numbers during the Golden Week holiday had translated into revenue. The result highlights a divergence between tourism activity and casino takings, though the data do not identify the reason for it.

Before the result was released, estimates for October performance varied. Investing.com reported on 12 October that Jefferies estimated revenue could fall between 6% and 10% year over year. By contrast, the article said market expectations pointed to performance close to flat compared with October of the previous year. The actual decline fell within the range cited by Jefferies and was weaker than the expectation of near stability. This shows that the two estimates published before the end of the month did not agree on the direction of revenue or the scale of the decline.

Against this backdrop, tourism data showed average hotel occupancy rose to 91.3% during the National Day holiday, up 3.1 percentage points from the corresponding period in 2025. Hotel occupancy peaked at 97.0% on 2 October, according to the Macao Government Tourism Office. The figures came during a period when visitor numbers increased, the office said, while the month ended with a decline in gross gaming revenue. The data therefore show different trends in tourism accommodation and gaming revenue over the period. Neither the tourism office nor the gaming bureau linked higher occupancy to a change in individual visitor spending.

For the first nine months of the year, gross revenue totaled 187.116 billion patacas, up 3.2% from 181.341 billion in the same period of 2025, according to the gaming bureau's official table. In September, the bureau recorded monthly revenue of 18.063 billion patacas, compared with 18.289 billion a year earlier, a year-over-year decline of 1.2%. The September comparison shows that the annual decline was already in place before the steeper drop recorded in October. Even so, the January-to-September total remained above its level in the corresponding period a year earlier. That total leaves the year-to-date picture different from the trend in recent months, which has been marked by consecutive year-over-year monthly declines.

Hou Fai said the year-over-year declines began in June and that the government would assess whether they reflected temporary factors or a higher comparison base. He added that the authorities were not planning to revise the annual revenue forecast of 236 billion patacas at the time. Keeping the forecast unchanged meant the government had not altered its official estimate after four months of declines and before October's result was included in the monthly data. Monitoring the effect of increased visitor numbers during the Golden Week holiday remains among the matters the chief executive said the government was watching. The statement did not specify when the forecast would be assessed or when a subsequent decision on it might be announced.