China’s Manufacturing PMI Contracts to 49.3% in October as New Orders Decline
Key Facts
China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 49.3% in October 2026, down 0.8 percentage points from September, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The decline pushed the index below the 50 threshold separating contraction from expansion, as explained by The Associated Press. The previous reading was 50.1% in September, after 49.8% in August, according to the agency. The shift reflects a loss of momentum in industrial activity after the index entered expansion territory in the previous month. Survey components also showed declines in new orders and production, putting industrial demand signals at the center of the October reading.
The new orders index fell to 49.4% in October, down 1.1 percentage points from September, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The reading was 50.5% in September, above the expansion threshold, and the bureau said at the time that market demand for industrial products continued to improve. The move between the two readings means the demand component fell below the expansion level again in October. The production index, meanwhile, dropped to 49.8%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous month. Together, the two readings put orders and production in contraction territory, after September data showed an improvement in new orders and the headline index reached 50.1%.
In trade, the new export orders index fell to 48.7 in October from 50.0 in September, according to The Associated Press. The reading was below the threshold of 50 that signals contraction, under the agency’s definition of the index. The agency said Chinese companies are shipping more goods abroad in search of buyers as domestic demand, affected by the prolonged property crisis, weakens. That places weakness in both external and domestic orders within the picture of industrial activity in October. The Purchasing Managers’ Index is based on a monthly survey of companies and is measured on a scale from 0 to 100, as explained by The Associated Press.
In equity markets, Li Auto closed at $11.03 on October 30, after recording $11.35 on October 26 and $11.26 on October 27. The stock closed at $11.39 on October 28, then $11.14 on October 29, according to EL7 data. XPeng closed at $9.04 on October 30, compared with $9.12 on October 26 and $9.29 on October 27. The stock had closed at $9.32 on October 28 and $9.18 on October 29. These closes provide context for the two stocks’ movement in recent sessions, without on their own establishing the reason for the price changes or directly linking them to the manufacturing index reading.
The October reading stands out against September, when the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose 0.3 percentage points to 50.1% and entered expansion territory, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. New orders that month registered 50.5%, above the threshold, while the bureau said market demand for industrial products continued to improve. In October, the headline reading, new orders and production fell below the threshold, while export orders dropped from 50.0 to 48.7. The comparison shows how signals shifted between the two months across the headline index and its components. The headline reading remains a composite figure from a company survey, rather than a standalone description of all industrial activity.