Oil Jumps 2.4% to $117.64 After Trump Briefing on Iran Naval Blockade
Key Facts
Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, briefed President Donald Trump on the state of the war with Iran on October 29, focusing on the naval blockade, Axios reported, citing two U.S. officials. The briefing came amid renewed concerns over the security of shipping and energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. The following day, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said 4 oil tankers were hit by mines and caught fire as they crossed the strait. One of the tankers, according to the Iranian account reported by The Associated Press, was carrying more than 2 million barrels. The agency could not verify Iran’s claims about the other three vessels. Brent rose 2.4% on Friday to $117.64 a barrel, signaling a return of supply concerns to the oil market.
Vice President JD Vance, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles attended the meeting at the White House, Axios reported. Cooper’s briefing focused on the state of the war and the naval blockade, while the timing of the military’s readiness to resume strikes after the election remained unclear. Two diplomats told The Associated Press that Trump had not made a final decision on new strikes. But he reiterated that he was considering military action after the midterm elections scheduled for November 3. That leaves open the possibility of escalation in the days after the vote, without indicating that an order to carry out strikes has been issued. The United States last struck Iran in early September, according to the agency.
Washington told regional allies that a new military operation could last several days and urged them to prepare for the possibility that Iran would target energy facilities and critical infrastructure in response to strikes, The Associated Press reported. Alongside the warnings, Vance sent a message to Iran’s national security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, proposing a resumption of negotiations. The message stressed that any talks to avert U.S. strikes “would require discussions on the nuclear issue,” according to Axios. Trump said the message concerned the delivery of medical supplies. The UAE Foreign Ministry also called on both sides to exercise restraint and pursue political solutions to contain tensions and prevent a return to large-scale operations. The moves reflect the parallel military warning and efforts to keep negotiations open.
On the mediation track, Axios reported that a group of regional mediators led by Qatar was seeking to prevent a resumption of the war after the midterm elections and bring the two sides back to negotiations. A regional source described the mediation as being at a “very sensitive” stage. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran “is still giving diplomacy a chance to succeed” and is working with mediators to review ideas for returning to a ceasefire. Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on Friday as part of coordinated efforts to reach an agreement between Washington and Tehran, according to an official who briefed Reuters on the talks. These contacts put a negotiating track alongside military preparations and warnings to allies. Reports did not specify when the mediation might yield an outcome or a possible agreement.
The briefing was preceded by a U.S. military deployment in the Gulf in late October, when the Defense Department deployed the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and amphibious ships carrying Marines, with about 9,000 troops in total, The Associated Press reported. The agency said the deployment could raise the U.S. naval presence in the region to more than 20,000 sailors and Marines, along with hundreds of aircraft. The three carrier strike groups were in the Middle East during April, for the first time since 2003. These facts do not establish that the October 29 briefing was followed by a new defensive buildup plan; the deployment in question took place earlier in the month. Reports of cargo planes arriving also did not specify their contents. The announced deployment therefore remains military context for the briefing, not evidence of a new decision on reinforcement.
Tensions were reflected in oil prices over two consecutive sessions. Brent fell 0.38% on October 29 to $114.88 a barrel, as hopes for peace talks eased some concerns about supply disruptions, Reuters reported. West Texas Intermediate also fell 0.76% to $102. But Brent rebounded the next day, reaching its highest level since the end of April as traders prepared for the possibility of an escalation in the war and supply concerns after the tanker incident in Hormuz. The December contract, which stopped trading on Friday, settled at $117.64 after a gain of $2.76. The contract rose 13.6% during October, while the most actively traded contract, for January delivery, stood at $113.43. The Associated Press reported that the Defense Department’s latest estimate to Congress raised the cost of the war to U.S. taxpayers to $47.1 billion.
The timing of what may follow the election remains uncertain. The Associated Press said it was unclear when the military would be ready to resume strikes after Election Day. Trump, meanwhile, indicated that the military action he was considering could come after the November 3 election, without making a final decision. Qatari mediation efforts are continuing, while Araghchi said Tehran was reviewing proposals for a return to a ceasefire. On shipping security, reports did not clarify the status of the Revolutionary Guard’s claims concerning three of the four tankers. Negotiations, military threats and warnings over energy facilities remain part of the same picture as oil markets track supply risks through the Strait of Hormuz.