Saudi Oil Exports Estimated at 7.9 Million Barrels a Day in October Amid Diverging Data
Key Facts
TankerTrackers estimated Saudi crude exports at about 7.9 million barrels a day during the first 29 days of October, compared with 5.8 million barrels a day in September, according to a report published by Bird Maritime on October 30. The estimate points to a clear increase in shipments, but does not provide a final tally for the month. Kpler data showed a different picture, recording exports of 5.72 million barrels a day in October as of the report, versus 6.70 million in September. The discrepancy leaves estimates of Saudi crude flows at odds across tracking services. October figures also remain subject to revision as more information becomes available.
According to preliminary TankerTrackers data cited in the report, October's average included shipments from both the west and east coasts, but the available material did not give numerical details for either route. The range of export outlets matters as shipping in the Gulf faces security risks and Yanbu on the Red Sea continues to be used as part of Saudi export routes. In September, TankerTrackers data showed about 14 million barrels of Saudi crude loaded onto seven supertankers inside the Gulf, after loading from Gulf terminals increased following the disruption of shipments through the East-West pipeline. The episode shows that shipping routes can change when infrastructure is disrupted or some outlets become unavailable. But on its own, it does not establish which of the two conflicting estimates for October exports is closer to the actual total.
Virginie Bahnik of Petro-Logistics said total volumes leaving the Strait of Hormuz had fallen by 2 to 3 million barrels a day from the peak recorded earlier in October. The report added that exports from Yanbu rose after declining in September, while the company expected Saudi exports to end the month above September's level. That assessment offers partial support for the recovery depicted in the TankerTrackers estimate, but does not align with Kpler data, which recorded a decline. Bahnik said: "Total volumes leaving the strait fell by 2 to 3 million barrels a day from the peak levels seen earlier in October." The estimates differ on shipping activity during a period of disrupted navigation.
Tracking difficulties help explain some of the divergence: the report said many tankers had switched off tracking signals because of security risks, making it harder to determine shipment volumes. In these conditions, estimates may draw on satellite imagery, port monitoring and other sources, alongside tracking-device data. The report said data from specialist firms do not always match and are likely to undergo further revisions as new information becomes available. The 7.9 million barrels-a-day estimate should therefore be read as a preliminary figure for the specified period, not a final result for October. Comparisons with Kpler's estimate remain subject to updates to shipping and tracking data.
October's estimates came amid heightened security tensions: the report pointed to Iranian attacks on shipping in the Gulf and Houthi claims of targeting Saudi oil facilities. On October 27, the Associated Press reported that the Houthis said they had targeted the Ras Tanura refinery with a ballistic missile, but said the agency could not verify the claim and Saudi Arabia had not commented at the time. Across the broader region, the International Energy Agency said crude exports from Gulf producers rose by 4.4 million barrels a day to 13.9 million in September, exceeding 75% of pre-war levels. It cautioned, however, that renewed attacks threatened to halt the recovery. Saudi export estimates are part of a broader rebound in Gulf supplies that remains exposed to shipping risks.
Supply disruptions also affected oil prices in September, according to the International Energy Agency: North Sea Dated crude rose by $26.17 a barrel month on month to an average of $116.89, while trading near $134 at the time the October report was prepared. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that before the September attacks, the East-West pipeline was carrying more than 5.0 million barrels a day of exports through Yanbu, and said the disruption pushed the spot price of Brent to $131 a barrel on September 15. Looking ahead, the agency expects oil flows from the Middle East to remain constrained during the fourth quarter of 2026, with average disrupted production of 4.5 million barrels a day and Brent averaging $105 a barrel. Those forecasts put regional flow constraints at the center of the context in which final Saudi shipping figures will be assessed.